You are listening to the one rock's podcast on strategy defense and foreign affairs.

My name is Ryan Evans and I'm sitting here again with Mike Kaufman to talk about the war in Ukraine.

Mike, thanks for being back on the show. It's good to see you.

Yeah, it's good to see you too it's been a while let's talk about

bakmood seems to be the focal point of at least public attention to the war

and trading a lot of barbs between Ukraine and Russia over who's winning surrounding towns and who's not.

What's the state of the fight there and what does this mean for the larger war?

Is Russia's pouring all these resources in, in large part through the Wagner group

Ukraine is also pouring a lot of resources into the defense.

What is the meaning of this battle for the larger war and what are the implications for what happens next?

On the ground, it looks like Russian forces made progress.

Northeastern Bahmoud, at Solidar, and they're trying to flank around the city.

I think they have made advances.

It's always a bit murky, you know, how much of

solodar they control or don't control.

I think the battle as it's been progressing

has been a fairly difficult and grinding fight.

To be honest, I think the odds are about even that in the coming weeks Ukraine will hold or lose

Bachmut. I actually see this going either way. But to me

tactically what happens in Bachmut isn't that significant because I've said

before if the Russian military takes Bachmut then you then they've moved 5 meters on the map and they're holding Bahmuth and then they're basically facing the next Ukrainian defensive line after that.

It doesn't make that big of a difference. What matters is the implication for the forces.

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