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GoodFellows: Conversations on Economics, History & Geopolitics

Locusts and Pirates: What’s Your Favorite Recession? with Tyler Goodspeed | Hoover Institution

GoodFellows: Conversations on Economics, History & Geopolitics

Hoover Institution

News, News Commentary, News:news Commentary, Politics, Government

4.6717 Ratings

🗓️ 25 March 2026

⏱️ 67 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

If unexpected wars and oil shocks have been big features of recent history, so too are economic recessions – another downturn perhaps ahead in 2026. Tyler Goodspeed, a former Hoover Institution fellow and author of the forthcoming book, Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What To Do About It, joins GoodFellows regulars Sir Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster for a tutorial on economic conditions and lessons past and present. After that: The three fellows discuss the latest in the Iran conflict including the feasibility of a peace agreement by week’s end as demanded by President Trump, the odds of land forces entering the equation in the near future, plus possible economic hardship ahead should the fighting linger. Finally, in the “lightning round”: why the late Stanford biologist Paul Erlich was so amiss in predicting a doomed planet (not unlike climate alarmists) and H.R.’s favorite Chuck Norris jokes in honor of the recent passing of the famed Hollywood tough guy.      Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today’s biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Will Iran still be able to control the flow of oil?

0:02.6

Be jointly controlled.

0:05.2

By who?

0:06.5

Maybe me.

0:07.9

Maybe me.

0:08.4

Me and the Ayatollah, whoever the Ayatollah is, whoever the next Ayatollah is.

0:15.6

It's Tuesday, March 24th, 2026, and welcome back to Goodfellums, a Hoover Institution broadcasts examining history,

0:21.9

economics, and geopolitics. I'm Bill Whalen. I'm a Hoover Distinguish Policy Fellow, and I'll be

0:26.4

your moderator today. And before we start the show, we have a special announcement for all

0:30.5

Goodfellows, fans, friends, and followers, our GFFs here in Northern California.

0:35.2

As part of Hoover's speaker series Dialogues on freedom celebrating the 250th anniversary of our country,

0:41.0

Goodfellows will be doing a live show at the Hoover Institution on the campus of Stanford University on Wednesday, April 22nd at 4.30 p.m.

0:49.3

And we want you to join us.

0:51.0

Seats will be available next week at Hoover.org for slash Goodfellows. We expect them to go quickly. Or you can pause the show if you're watching us. Seats will be available next week at hoover.org for us slash Goodfellows. We expect them to go quickly. Or you can pause the show if you're watching us on YouTube and scan the QR code and get notified when tickets are available. There will be a reception after the show where you can meet the fellows in person and be able to buy some of the limited edition exclusive Goodfellows merch. You see it on the show like this little quarter zip that I'm rocking. We hope to see you there. Now on with the show and first things

1:15.5

first let's meet the stars of our show if you haven't been watching us for the past six years.

1:19.4

They get an introduction nonetheless. It's my honor to welcome back to Goodfellows,

1:22.9

the historian Sir Neil Ferguson, the economist John Cochran and former presidential national security advisor and our resident optimist, Lieutenant General, HR McMaster. Neil John and HR are all Hoover Senior Fellows. Gentlemen, two topics to cover today in the second part of our show. We are going to revisit, you guessed it, Iran. I want to get your thoughts on whether or not you think there is going to be a deal by the end of the week, as the president has suggested.

1:46.0

I also want to know exactly who we're talking to and what acceptable terms of the deal would benefit the U.S. and Israel.

1:52.5

But first things first, let's revisit two cornerstones of Goodfellows, and that's history at economics, specifically the intersection of history of economics.

2:02.1

We're going to talk about the history of economic receptions. It's my great honor to welcome to the show, our friend and former

2:06.5

Hoover colleague, Dr. Tyler Goodspeed. Taller Goodspeed chaired the White House Council of

2:11.1

Economic Advisors from 2020 to 2021 before he came west as a Hoover Kleinhein's fellow. He is the author of four books

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