Little Happier: How Did This Stockbroker Make So Many Accurate Predictions?

Happier with Gretchen Rubin

Lemonada Media

Education, Self-improvement, Health & Fitness

4.7 • 13.2K Ratings

🗓️ 24 February 2020

⏱️ 2 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Learning about a clever and successful financial scam reminded me of how hard it is to know what I don’t know. Get in touch: @gretchenrubin; @elizabethcraft; podcast@gretchenrubin.com Get in touch on Instagram: @GretchenRubin & @LizCraft Get the podcast show notes by email every week here: http://gretchenrubin.com/#newsletter Order a copy of Gretchen’s new book OUTER ORDER, INNER CALM here: http://outerorderinnercalmbook.com Leave a voicemail message on: 774-277-9336 For information about advertisers and promo codes, go to happiercast.com/sponsors. Happier with Gretchen Rubin is part of ‘The Onward Project,’ a family of podcasts brought together by Gretchen Rubin—all about how to make your life better. Check out the other Onward Project podcasts—Do The Thing, Side Hustle School, and Happier in Hollywood. If you liked this episode, please subscribe, leave a review, and tell your friends! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	I'm Gretchen Rubin and this is a little happier.
0:04.0	In Daniel Lovitans' very interesting book, The Organized Mind, I read an explanation for
0:09.0	how a particular kind of scam is organized.
0:12.3	I do love reading about scams and how they're set up.
0:16.0	This scam is a great illustration of the fact that we think we have a clear view of what's
0:20.7	happening, but in fact, if we step back to see the bigger picture, things look very different.
0:27.9	Now, imagine that a stockbroker sends you an unsolicited letter.
0:32.1	It says, by the next word in predicting the stock market, I want to prove myself to you.
0:37.5	Over the next six months, I will make predictions about how the market will move.
0:42.3	At any time, you can ask me to stop sending you letters or I'll take you on as a client
0:47.6	and make you rich.
0:49.6	My first prediction is IBM goes up.
0:53.3	I'll send another letter in four weeks.
0:57.0	You guessed it.
0:58.2	The prediction comes true.
1:00.3	Another letter arrives with another market prediction that turns out to be correct.
1:05.0	And this continues six times in a row.
1:09.0	What would you think?
1:11.2	This scam actually occurred.
1:13.3	Many people gave money to this person and the broker was imprisoned for fraud.
1:18.7	How did he do it?
1:20.2	How did he predict what would happen so accurately?
	...

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