I'm Gretchen Rubin and this is a little happier.

In Daniel Lovitans' very interesting book, The Organized Mind, I read an explanation for

how a particular kind of scam is organized.

I do love reading about scams and how they're set up.

This scam is a great illustration of the fact that we think we have a clear view of what's

happening, but in fact, if we step back to see the bigger picture, things look very different.

Now, imagine that a stockbroker sends you an unsolicited letter.

It says, by the next word in predicting the stock market, I want to prove myself to you.

Over the next six months, I will make predictions about how the market will move.

At any time, you can ask me to stop sending you letters or I'll take you on as a client

and make you rich.

My first prediction is IBM goes up.

I'll send another letter in four weeks.

You guessed it.

The prediction comes true.

Another letter arrives with another market prediction that turns out to be correct.

And this continues six times in a row.

What would you think?

This scam actually occurred.

Many people gave money to this person and the broker was imprisoned for fraud.

How did he do it?

How did he predict what would happen so accurately?

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