Well, howdy there, Internet people, it's Bell again.

So today, we're going to talk about Trump's bad news out of Atlanta.

It wasn't that long ago that I said we wouldn't wait for an official declaration

to point to big signs of a possible economic downturn or recession.

Well, about that.

One place you can look for signs of downturn is in

data from the Federal Reserve. The reserve system has the Board of Governors and then the 12

regional banks. Sometimes combing through charts and tables for hours on end is what it takes

to really see the big picture. And sometimes it's a little bit easier.

Like when a public tool, like the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDP Now tool, does something

like predict negative GDP growth for the first quarter. That happened. The February 28th summary

says, quote, the GDP now model estimate for real GDP

growth, seasonally adjusted annual rate. In the first quarter of 2025 is negative 1.5% on February 28,

down from 2.3% on February 19. After recent releases from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

and the U.S. Census Bureau, the now cast of the contribution of net exports to first quarter

real GDP growth fell from negative 0.41 percentage points to negative 3.70 percentage points. While the now cast a

first quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.3% to 1.3%. In normal person speak,

the GDP is being forecast to fall by 1.5% for the first quarter

because of bad economic news. So it's saying that from January through March, the U.S.

economy will decline. Last week, it was projecting a 2.3% increase. So this is a bit of a change.

What happened?

Well, the economy cared about your feelings.

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