Let's talk about Lichtman's 2024 election prediction....
Belle of the Ranch
Belle of the Ranch
4.9 • 1K Ratings
🗓️ 7 September 2024
⏱️ 4 minutes
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Summary
Let's talk about Lichtman's 2024 election prediction....
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Well, howdy there internet people? It's Bell again. So today we're going to talk about the election |
| 0:06.8 | prediction everybody's been waiting on and sending messages about. Historian and Distinguished Professor at American University, Alan Lichtman, |
| 0:16.2 | has made his prediction as to who's going to win the presidential election in 2024. |
| 0:22.0 | Lichtman has a unique record when it comes to predicting the outcomes of the U.S. presidential |
| 0:26.8 | elections. He's been correct nine times out of ten if you're going by who took office after the election. |
| 0:34.3 | However, the one instance when he was wrong about who would eventually |
| 0:38.3 | inhabit 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue was the 2000 election. You know the Bush v Gore election that is |
| 0:45.6 | still hotly debated today. Lichtman's system is based on a series of true false |
| 0:51.1 | statements about the incumbent party. We have a series of true false statements about the incumbent party. |
| 0:54.2 | We have a couple of videos going over how the statements work in detail. |
| 0:58.4 | But here's a brief recap. |
| 1:00.4 | Lichtman calls them keys, as in keys to the White House. |
| 1:04.0 | There are 13 keys in his system, and each key is a true or false statement related to the political situation in the U.S. |
| 1:12.0 | If 8 or more of the 13 keys are true for the incumbent party, |
| 1:17.0 | its candidate will win the election. |
| 1:19.0 | But if fewer than 8 are true, the opposing party will win. |
| 1:23.4 | He described the system in a recent video as, quote, |
| 1:27.0 | big picture true false questions that tap |
| 1:29.9 | into the strength and performance of the White House Party. |
| 1:33.7 | When RFK Jr. dropped out of the race |
| 1:36.4 | and joined forces with the establishment billionaire, |
| 1:39.3 | that made certain the incumbent party, the Democrats, would have another key. |
... |
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