Well, howdy there internet people, it's Bell again.

So today, we're going to talk about election merages and shifts,

and why it might matter a lot this election.

We're going to go over a phenomenon first identified in 2013,

but can be seen in elections going back to 2004. Given Trump's likely moves on election night, it's incredibly important to know about this and talk about it before election night.

People need to know to expect it.

The blue shift or red mirage is an observable phenomenon

that stems from the typical demographic difference between in person, mail-in, and early voters, and the typical voting patterns of people who live in rural

areas and cities.

What happens is that small, low population counties get done counting their votes first.

So as the results start to come in, those are generally the first reported.

These areas tend to vote Republican, so it creates the appearance of a Republican

victory early on.

Then as time goes on, the city start reporting, which are areas that tend to vote for the Democratic Party

so there are large shifts in percentages and numbers in favor of the Democratic Party

the same thing occurs when the early and mail-in ballots start getting counted.

Those also tend to trend toward the Democratic Party.

As those votes get counted, the red mirage disappears, and the blue shift begins to happen.

Republicans watch their leads shrink or disappear.

This happened in 2020, in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

It might happen again this year.

Those same demographic trends can cause exit polls to be off because exit polls

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