Lawfare Daily: Wargaming a Chinese Blockade of Taiwan

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The Lawfare Institute

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4.7 • 6.2K Ratings

🗓️ 4 September 2025

⏱️ 36 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

For today's episode, Lawfare Foreign Policy Editor Daniel Byman interviews Mark Cancian, a Senior Adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, to assess the impact and implications of a Chinese blockade of Taiwan. Cancian discusses why China might choose blockade over an outright invasion, how the blockade might affect Taiwan, the risks of escalation, and what the United States and Taiwan must do to make a blockade less likely and less risky.

For more, take a look at “Lights Out? Wargaming a Chinese Blockade of Taiwan,” a recent CSIS report by Mark F. Cancian, Matthew F. Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham.

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Transcript

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0:00.0	The following podcast contains advertising.
0:04.4	To access an ad-free version of the Lawfare podcast, become a material supporter of Lawfare at
0:11.5	patreon.com slash lawfare. That's patreon.com slash lawfare.
0:18.2	Also, check out Lawfare's other podcast offerings, Rational Security, Chatter, Lawfare No Bull,
0:26.9	and The Aftermath.
0:31.7	Hi, I'm Rab, an engineer at SSE, and I'm on top of one of our 260-meter offshore wind turbines.
0:40.0	But we do more than generate renewable energy.
0:42.9	We are transforming networks to power homes and businesses
0:46.4	and providing flexible backup power when wind is near an option.
0:50.4	But we're ready to get cracking and build so much more to boost the economy and secure
0:55.7	our energy future let's go find out more at sse.com slash change if the Chinese are harassing
1:08.8	the Taiwanese and the Taiwanese used their military, they can thwart
1:16.7	the Chinese intent.
1:18.0	In fact, that can sink a lot of Chinese Coast Guard and militiaships.
1:24.2	It's the Lawfare podcast.
1:26.4	I'm Daniel Beiman, the foreign policy editor of Lawfare, with Mark Kansion, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
1:36.0	It's important to recognize that a conflict over Taiwan would affect every person on the planet.
1:46.0	Because of the disruption of international trade,
1:50.0	because of the disruption of particularly chip manufacturing,
1:54.0	every nation would feel the effects.
1:58.0	Today we're talking about Dr. Kansian's new report on the Chinese blockade of Taiwan.
2:04.6	Let me start with the blockade part of that title.
	...

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