Lawfare Daily: Russian PMCs Update with Candace Rondeaux
The Lawfare Podcast
The Lawfare Institute
4.7 • 6.4K Ratings
🗓️ 12 May 2026
⏱️ 53 minutes
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Summary
Candace Rondeaux, the founder and principal of Frontline Atlas, an independent geopolitical risk intelligence hub; a professor with the Future Security Initiative at Arizona State University; and a senior fellow in global security at New America joins Lawfare’s Justin Sherman to discuss the latest geopolitics, operations, and state of Russian private military companies (PMCs). They discuss the current state of Russia’s Wagner Group and other Russian PMCs, their roles in recruitment of people to fight for Russia against Ukraine and the operation of Russia’s shadow fleet, and touchpoints with Iranian actors. They also discuss Russian PMC activities in Mali; how recent setbacks on the African continent might blow back on the chain of command, including Russian government actors; a recent legal case in the African court of human rights; and what steps the United States might take to better address Russian PMCs’ security threats.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hi, I'm Alan Rosenstein, research director at Lawfare and a law professor at the University of Minnesota. |
| 0:10.5 | If you know me, it's probably as the guy who spent a year obsessively following the saga of the TikTok ban. |
| 0:16.4 | I've been involved with Lawfare since I was a law student nearly 15 years ago, |
| 0:20.6 | and what's |
| 0:21.0 | kept me here is its core commitment, independent, nonpartisan, expert analysis delivered |
| 0:26.3 | at the pace of news. |
| 0:28.0 | And that kind of careful work only matters more as emerging technologies move faster than |
| 0:32.3 | the policies meant to govern them. |
| 0:34.7 | Lawfare is a 501 nonprofit, and we keep everything free. That only works if listeners |
| 0:40.0 | like you pitch in. Head to lawfaremedia.org slash support and become a material supporter. |
| 0:45.6 | Even $10 a month really does make a difference. Thanks for listening. And there are a lot of actors that are really deeply affected by these operations. |
| 1:06.4 | And I think we're starting to see an escalation, if not of force, but certainly an escalation of |
| 1:11.8 | military presence in response to the shadow fleet. That's a bit troubling. It's the Lawfare |
| 1:17.7 | podcast. I'm Justin Sherman, contributing editor at Lawfare and CEO of Global Cyber Strategies, |
| 1:24.0 | with Candace Rondeau, founder and principal of frontline Atlas, an independent |
| 1:28.7 | geopolitical risk hub, and a professor with the Future Security Initiative at Arizona State |
| 1:33.4 | University. When we think about the cooperation between Russia and Iran at the state level, |
| 1:39.1 | you always have to know that there's a shadow level as well, and that bears watching, |
| 1:43.4 | because I think it will be |
| 1:44.2 | really transformative. And in some ways, you know, if you can get your oil to market in the case of |
| 1:48.8 | Iran or in case of Russia, there's not a lot of incentive for you to start coming to the negotiating |
| 1:53.8 | table. And I think that's a factor that we need to keep eye on. |
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