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The John Batchelor Show

#LANCASTER COUNTY: NO RECESSION YET. JIM MCTAGUE, FORMER WASHINGTON EDITOR, BARRONS. @MCTAGUEJ. AUTHOR OF THE "MARTIN AND TWYLA BOUNDARY SERIES." #FRIENDSOFHISTORYDEBATINGSOCIETY

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

News, Books, Society & Culture, Arts

4.62.7K Ratings

🗓️ 12 April 2025

⏱️ 9 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

#LANCASTER COUNTY: NO RECESSION YET.   JIM MCTAGUE, FORMER WASHINGTON EDITOR, BARRONS. @MCTAGUEJ.  AUTHOR OF THE "MARTIN AND TWYLA BOUNDARY SERIES."  #FRIENDSOFHISTORYDEBATINGSOCIETY

1900 STANFORD FRATERNITIES AND BOOKSTORE

Transcript

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0:00.0

This is CBSI on the world. I'm John Batchel. Lancaster County. Jim McTague, former Washington editor of

0:07.4

Barron's Magazine, now a novelist in the best county in the Keystone State, weathering the week of tariffs

0:14.3

and the promise or threat or prediction of a recession near at hand unless Jim a very good evening to you

0:26.0

you watch the market for years as a pro now you watch one watch the market as an amateur

0:31.6

you're outside of the game but you've been a perma bear for two years does Does this week, the last month, the last three months

0:40.4

since the high of January, does this satisfy the perma bear? Good evening to you.

0:45.3

Good evening, John. Now, you know, I was looking for a recession in the fourth quarter of this

0:52.4

year, and now I'm not so sure. And the reason is payrolls

0:59.0

continue to expand. Companies are still hiring. The man in the street, you know, I go out all week and talk to people who own businesses and people

1:11.7

who shop and they are all worried about the tariffs, but they all say, universally, I have

1:20.3

not been impacted yet by the tariffs. So the fear of what might happen is restricting

1:27.3

their spending,

1:28.9

which is bad for Main Street.

1:30.9

So I was in beautiful Littitz, Pennsylvania,

1:33.8

cute tourist town, lots of upscale shops.

1:37.4

And one of the shopkeepers, Michael,

1:40.0

who has a tattered t-shirt, tells me that the foot traffic

1:43.5

has been miserable.

1:46.1

The tourists have not showed up yet.

1:48.9

He said the Hail Mary passed for downtown Littitz is the pretzel festival on April 26th.

1:56.9

That's a big deal.

1:58.0

So he's hoping that the pretzel festival finally attracts some shoppers.

...

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