Kit Yates on expecting the unexpected

Hello Monday with Jessi Hempel

Careers, Business

4.8 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 8 January 2024

⏱️ 32 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

These days the only thing that seems certain is uncertainty. So how do we navigate our “new normal” when it seems to change every day? Today’s guest might have a few ideas. Kit Yates is a mathematics lecturer at the University of Bath and the author of How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions—and the Art of Knowing When Not To. In his book, Kit breaks down misconceptions around predictions and some common mistakes we tend to make. He sits down with Jessi to teach us all how to make better predictions and feel a bit better about the future. Follow Kit Yates on LinkedIn and check out his book, How to Expect the Unexpected. Follow Jessi Hempel on LinkedIn and order her debut memoir, now available in paperback! Join the Hello Monday community: Subscribe to the Hello Monday newsletter, and join us on the LinkedIn News page for Hello Monday Office Hours, Wednesdays at 3p ET. To continue the conversation this week and every week, join our free LinkedIn group for Hello Monday listeners https://lnkd.in/hellomondaygroup

Transcript

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0:00.0	LinkedIn News.
0:05.0	from the news
0:07.0	From the news team at LinkedIn, I'm Jesse Hemple and this is Hello Monday.
0:11.0	Happy New Year from all of us who make the show.
0:18.4	It's gonna be a really big year.
0:20.8	There is so much change happening pretty immediately in the short term.
0:25.0	Like a presidential election ahead in the United States.
0:29.0	AI is also going to be transformative this year.
0:32.0	A lot of things that we have taken for granted are going to change.
0:35.2	I mean really that is the only constant, right? Change? And this time of year we often consider predictions about what's ahead.
0:45.0	The reasoning here is that the more we can draw on what we know has happened,
0:49.0	to predict what we believe will happen, the better prepared will be. That's how we decide how much to save for retirement or whether to take a new job or to book a
0:59.5	camping trip in California next August. I mean the reasoning here is that it can't possibly
1:05.1	rain next August in California because it doesn't rain on the West Coast in the summer, right?
1:10.9	Here's the thing. We are not always great at prediction. Back yourself up four years.
1:16.0	Would you have predicted a global pandemic in January of 2020? Or think about your own
1:21.7	personal circumstances. Would you have predicted the life you have now?
1:26.0	The job, the friends, where you live?
1:30.4	In the world, it's only becoming more unpredictable.
1:34.0	It rained in California last summer, just saying.
1:38.0	So this week, we're going to try to focus on getting smarter
1:41.0	about how and when we make predictions. Our guest is Kit Yates.
	...

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