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Naval

Judgment Is the Decisive Skill

Naval

Naval Ravikant

Business, Technology

4.82.4K Ratings

🗓️ 29 April 2019

⏱️ 6 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Everything we've discussed so far has been setting you up to apply judgment.

In an age of infinite leverage, judgment becomes the most important skill 0:00

Everything else you do is setting you up to apply judgment 1:21

Judgment is knowing the long-term consequences of your actions 2:40

Without experience, judgment is often less than useless 3:15

The people with the best judgment are among the least emotional 4:05

A lot of the top investors often sound like philosophers 5:18

The more outraged someone is, the worse their judgment 6:00

Transcript: http://nav.al/judgment

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

We spoke about specific knowledge, we talked about accountability, we talked about leverage.

0:06.2

The last skill that Naval talks about in his tweet storm is judgment, where he says that leverage is a force multiplier for your judgment.

0:16.5

We are now living in an age of nearly infinite leverage, and all the great fortunes are created through leverage.

0:22.1

Your first job is to go and obtain leverage, and you can obtain leverage through permission by taking risks and getting people to work for you, or by raising capital, or you can get leverage permissionlessly by learning how to code or becoming good communicator and podcasting, broadcasting, creating videos, writing, etc.

0:40.7

That's how you get leverage, but once you have leverage, what do you do with it?

0:45.1

The first part of your career is to spend hustling to get leverage. Once you have the leverage, then you want to slow down a bit, because your judgment really matters.

0:52.6

It's like you've gone from steering your sailboat around to now you're steering an ocean liner or a tanker. You have a lot more at risk, but you have a lot more to gain as well.

1:01.2

You're carrying a much higher payload. So in an age of infinite leverage, judgment becomes the most important skill.

1:06.9

Warren Buffett is so wealthy now because of his judgment. Even if you were to take away all of Warren's money, tomorrow, investors would come out of the woodwork and hand him $100 billion because they know his judgment is so good, and they would give him a big chunk of that $100 billion to invest.

1:21.2

So ultimately, everything else that you do is actually setting you up to apply your judgment.

1:28.0

One of the big things that people rail on a CEO pay, and for sure there's crony capitalism that goes on where these CEOs control their boards and the boards give them too much money, but there's certain CEOs who definitely earn their keep because their judgment is better.

1:40.4

If you're steering a big ship, if you're steering Google or Apple, and your judgment is 10 or 20% better than the next person's, society will literally pay you hundreds of millions of dollars more because you're steering a $100 billion ship.

1:54.5

If you're on course 10 or 20% of the time, more often the other person, the compounding results on that hundreds of billions of dollars you're managing will be so large that your CEO pay will be dwarfed in comparison.

2:05.5

So demonstrated judgment, credibility around the judgment is so critical. Warren Buffett wins here because he has massive credibility. He's been highly accountable.

2:16.3

He's been right over and over in the public domain. He's built a reputation for very high integrity so you can trust him.

2:23.2

So a person like that people will throw infinite leverage behind him because of his judgment. Nobody asks him how hard he works. Nobody asks him when he wakes up or when he goes to sleep.

2:33.5

Did Warren just do your thing? So especially demonstrated judgment with high accountability, clear track record is critical.

2:41.7

Let's define judgment. I would define it as knowing the long term effects of your decisions or being able to predict the long term effects your decisions.

2:54.0

It's funny. My definition of wisdom is knowing the long term consequences of your actions. So they're not all that different.

3:00.2

Wisdom is just judgment on a personal domain. Wisdom applied to external problems. I think it's judgment. So they're highly linked.

3:07.9

But yes, it's knowing the long term consequences of your actions and then making kind of the right decision to capitalize on that judgment is very hard to build up.

3:16.9

This is where both intellect and experience come in play. There are many problems with the so-called intellectuals in the ivory tower.

...

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