JF 4049: Construction Costs, Sector Shifts and Stagflation Odds ft. John Chang

The Best Ever CRE Show

Best Ever CRE

Business, Investing, Entrepreneurship

4.7 • 996 Ratings

🗓️ 5 October 2025

⏱️ 39 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

On this week’s episode of The Horizon, John Chang unpacks how shifting government policies around tariffs, immigration, and a potential shutdown could shape commercial real estate over the next several years. He explains why rolling tariffs are inflationary rather than transitory, how tighter immigration reduces labor supply and pushes wages higher, and why delayed government data complicates the Fed’s rate-cut path. John also maps sector-level ripple effects, from construction and value-add cost pressures to hospitality and retail demand, while noting strong household balance sheets and tactical opportunities for investors who position near policy beneficiaries like domestic steel. He closes with a pragmatic takeaway: uncertainty raises risk, but it also creates investable dislocations for informed operators. This is a limited time offer, so head over to aspenfunds.us/bestever to download the investor deck—or grab their quick-start guide if you’re brand new to oil and gas investing. Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Join the Best Ever Community The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It’s free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria. Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Podcast production done by ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	You've probably noticed this. Despite all the headlines about record investment in renewables,
0:04.8	the world still runs on oil. In fact, demand keeps climbing. But here's what most investors don't
0:10.8	realize. A lot of institutional capital has actually pulled back from oil and gas because of
0:15.8	ESG mandates and political pressure. That's created a huge gap in production and a big opportunity for
0:22.1	individual investors. That's where Aspen's oil and gas fund comes in. Their last fund has
0:27.4	delivered six straight quarters of 15% annualized cash yield from producing oil wells. With their
0:33.3	current fund, they're targeting 29% cash on cash returns in over 10 years and 8.83 times equity
0:39.9	multiple. I've personally been impressed with the way Aspen approaches a space balancing the
0:45.1	stability of producing wells with the upside of carefully selected drilling projects. And here's a
0:50.7	bonus for best ever listeners. Aspen has lowered their minimum investment from $150,000
0:55.8	down to $100,000. One of their investors, Terry, put it best. We were new to oil and gas
1:02.1	investing and quickly found Aspen's approach sound. We've been very satisfied with the experience
1:07.6	and delighted with the returns. This is a limited time offer, so head over to
1:11.9	Aspenfunds.us.U.S.Ford slash best ever to download the investor deck or grab their
1:17.7	quick start guide if you're brand new to oil and gas investing. Welcome back, best ever listeners,
1:24.9	to the Horizon podcast. This week, I'm going to focus on some of the
1:30.3	government policy that is shaping the commercial real estate outlook. I'm talking about
1:35.9	tariffs, immigration. The government shut down. Now, I need to point out that I am not taking
1:41.7	sides here, but I'm sharing my thoughts on how these
1:45.0	national policies could shape the commercial real estate investment market as we go forward.
1:51.6	So I'm John Chang, and I've been active in real estate investing most of my life.
1:56.8	And since 2007, I've had the opportunity to lead the research and advisory services team at Markston Milichap, the leading commercial real estate brokerage company.
	...

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