Jens Nordvig: The Death of Fixed Income

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business, Investing, News, Business News

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 7 June 2021

⏱️ 53 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The Interview: Danish-born economist Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data, a data and analytics firm for institutional investors that specializes in foreign exchange markets and macroeconomic policy, joins Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal for a deep-dive conversation on the global economic outlook; the impact of the vaccine rollout on the U.S., Europe and emerging markets; and the likelihood of multi-year fiscal stimulus. Nordvig sees monetary policy frameworks evolving in ways that are unfriendly toward bonds, like Average Inflation Targeting (AIT), causing a fundamental rethinking among investors for owning fixed income assets. Recorded April 7, 2020. Key Learnings: A multi-decade bull market in fixed income lasted longer than many expected due to negative interest rate policy, and the COVID shock made central banks across the globe max out monetary policy. Interest rates are currently unattractive to many kinds of investors, and the economic outlook is such that risk assets look attractive, including cryptocurrency. Follow @jnordvig @ExanteData. Visit Exante Data (https://www.exantedata.com/). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Yeah, it's good to see you. Good to get you on real vision. Thank you very much for my, we're
0:16.4	having spoken for a while. No, I know. Look, just to give people a background about yourself,
0:21.2	a little bit of career background and what you do now. Yeah. So I had a long career,
0:27.9	Goldman, Bridgewater Associates, Nemurra, and then five years ago, I started Accentate Data,
0:34.3	and it's been evolving. There's been a few things going on over the last, certainly the last 14
0:42.3	months. So initially, we were very focused on advising CIOs on broad macro strategy, and then we
0:49.8	sort of been building more and more of a data platform. Capital flows is our specialty. So we have
0:55.5	very comprehensive track and global capital flows. And then in January 2020, we sort of pivoted a bit
1:02.0	to essentially do COVID forecasting. So we had some months where there was an intense focus on that,
1:08.0	there still is intense focus on it. And yeah, we we spent a lot of energy on that, and it was very
1:15.6	helpful last year, and I think I think clients appreciate it. So you can definitely see that
1:20.2	the clients popping up there, we didn't know existed, and we're still going to go with forecasting.
1:26.1	And now obviously it's a little bit different this year, but still big, big macro questions around
1:31.6	COVID with OK how the vaccine's going to handle the new strains, like sort of big questions that
1:36.7	are actually going to matter for markets that are different from what investors have normally
1:41.5	been thinking about. Yeah, what I'd love to do today is kind of pick your brains on what is going
1:46.9	on, how you see this play out, because you know, we're in unprecedented kind of times with unprecedented
1:55.6	stimuli, we've got all sorts of stuff going on, we've got virus mutations, variations, there's a lot
2:03.1	to digest. So I don't know how you want to start, but what do you think is going on right now,
2:09.3	where are we? Well, so like we both use Twitter, you and I, right? And one of the things
2:15.6	you can do on Twitter is you can kind of make the same point repeatedly, because it disappears
2:21.6	after a few minutes, right? And one of the one of the things that you can definitely point out
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