It’s turbulent times for the wind sector in the US, but the outlook is better across the pond. What can the US learn from Europe?
Interchange Recharged
Wood Mackenzie
4.8 • 535 Ratings
🗓️ 3 June 2025
⏱️ 44 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Nearly 150 days into President Trump’s second term, the outlook for wind energy in the United States - particularly offshore wind - is increasingly bleak. Trump had pledged to end offshore wind development, and now the House Ways and Means Committee is proposing a phase-out of tax credits for renewables by 2031 - a move that would severely impact an already struggling wind sector (over on our sister podcast Energy Gang, we discuss the bill and what it means for renewables – check out that episode once you’re finished here).
Only three offshore wind projects have come online in US waters, with 4 GW currently under construction. In 2024, total wind installations reached a ten-year low at just 5.2 GW. By contrast, Europe has surged ahead, having built 35 GW of offshore wind capacity - ten times the US total – emphasising the stark differences in policy and financing frameworks.
Still, there are glimmers of hope: President Trump recently lifted a stop-work order on a $5 billion offshore wind farm off the coast of New York, following lobbying from Governor Kathy Hochul. The project, led by Norwegian company Equinor, is expected to power 500,000 homes by 2027. However, with developer confidence sinking, experts warn that the stop-start nature of US policy continues to undermine long-term momentum in the sector.
To forecast the next few years for wind in the US, host Sylvia Leyva Martinez – principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie – is joined by analyst Stephen Maldonado. They explore the policy and technology that’s holding back deployment of offshore wind in the US.
Plus, looking across the Atlantic to Europe, Sylvia talks to WindEurope CEO Giles Dickson, about the financing frameworks for wind in Europe.
Sylvia, Stephen and Giles talk through the lessons for developers and financers: with uncertainty around tax credits and shifting policies, there may be a shift in resources to more advanced projects, putting early-stage ones on hold. Repowering old wind turbines is an option too; Giles explains how. And making use of domestic supply chain strengths is key – compared to solar, wind has more domestic supply chain support.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | On the camping trail at the end of last year, now President Trump said he'd end offshore wind development on day one. |
| 0:08.0 | By contrast, the Biden administration set a goal of installing 30 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2030. |
| 0:15.0 | Wood McKenzie's Solar Energy and Storage Summit is back in Denver on the 29th and 30th of April, |
| 0:21.6 | 2026. |
| 0:22.6 | It's co-located with the brand new North American Power and Renewables Forum, |
| 0:27.6 | which features senior speakers from across the US power sector. |
| 0:30.6 | Come and join over 450 senior leaders from US power developers, utilities, and independent power producers to tackle |
| 0:39.7 | the industry's biggest challenges. From navigating life after tax credits to capturing the load |
| 0:45.5 | growth boom, discover how the energy mix is evolving and how the U.S. is going to meet that power |
| 0:50.7 | demand. Seats are limited, so register now at woodmack.com. |
| 1:01.2 | Almost 150 days into Trump's second term, and it's a hostile environment for the wind sector. |
| 1:07.7 | The draft budget reconciliation bill recently proposed by the House Ways and Means |
| 1:12.1 | Committee would wind down tax credits for most renewables by 2031. The tax credit phase out would |
| 1:19.4 | heavily impact the wind supply chain, which had already been struggling. If I was a player in the |
| 1:25.9 | win world, I would be looking at the 18 to 24 month time frame for delivery pretty conservatively. |
| 1:32.9 | I don't think there would be enough confidence to bank on the front end of that. |
| 1:38.5 | So what does the project pipeline look like in these uncertain times? |
| 1:42.0 | And what's the outlook for wind? |
| 1:43.9 | It's not great. And it's going |
| 1:45.4 | down every time that I have to reissue this outlook. I'm Sylvia Leibon Martinez, and I'm a |
| 1:52.8 | principal analyst at Wood McKenzie covering global energy markets. Bienvenidos. Welcome to the show. |
| 1:58.8 | It's great to have you here. |
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