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Naval

It's Rare to Have Competing, Viable, Scientific Theories

Naval

Naval Ravikant

Business, Technology

4.82.4K Ratings

🗓️ 11 May 2021

⏱️ 3 minutes

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Transcript http://nav.al/theories

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0:00.0

There's also the theory of song enough induction.

0:02.3

I'm going to mangle the description, but it says,

0:04.2

if you want to find a theory that explains

0:07.6

why something is happening.

0:09.2

And now a theory here is something that's encoded

0:11.1

as a binary string.

0:12.5

Then the correct theory is actually

0:15.5

going to be a probability weighted theory that takes

0:19.0

to account all the possible theories,

0:20.7

but weighs them based on their complexity.

0:23.0

So the simpler ones are more likely to be true

0:25.1

and the more complex ones are less likely to be true.

0:27.7

And you sum them all together,

0:29.4

and that's how you figure out the correct probability

0:31.8

distribution function for your explanation.

0:33.8

That's similar to Bayesianism, isn't it?

0:35.6

In both cases, they're assuming that you can enumerate

0:38.8

all the possible theories, but you can't,

0:40.8

because that's the creativity coming in.

0:42.8

It's very rare in science to have more than one viable theory.

0:47.0

In physics, we mentioned Newtonian theory of gravity,

0:49.4

and there was general relativity.

...

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