It's Not Too Late to Deter China From Invading Taiwan
The Lawfare Podcast
The Lawfare Institute
4.7 • 6.4K Ratings
🗓️ 6 February 2023
⏱️ 31 minutes
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Summary
Last week, the United States and the Philippines reached an agreement to expand U.S. military operations in the Philippines to deter China's increasingly aggressive actions toward Taiwan and in the South China Sea. The news was sandwiched between Air Force General Mike Minihan predicting that U.S. confrontation with China may happen as early as 2025 and Secretary Antony Blinken postponing his trip to China after a Chinese surveillance balloon was detected flying over the United States.
Lawfare legal fellow Saraphin Dhanani sat down with Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro, a Center Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and non-resident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, to discuss the likelihood of military confrontation between the United States and China over Taiwan, and whether the United States has exhausted all of its deterrent capabilities to stall China from invading Taiwan.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | The following podcast contains advertising. |
| 0:04.0 | To access an ad-free version of the LawFair podcast, |
| 0:08.0 | become a material supporter of LawFair at patreon.com slash law fair. |
| 0:14.0 | That's patreon.com slash law fair. |
| 0:18.0 | Also, check out LawFair's other podcast offerings, |
| 0:22.0 | rational security, chatter, law fair no bull, and the aftermath. |
| 0:29.0 | We cannot fake it. |
| 0:35.0 | If I could easily see what the United States is faking something, |
| 0:38.0 | I'm sure that China can tell as well. |
| 0:41.0 | The best, most solid strategy to try to communicate to try, for example, |
| 0:45.0 | that they couldn't take Taiwan quickly is to develop the capabilities to deny them, |
| 0:51.0 | the ability to take it quickly. |
| 0:53.0 | So I get this question a lot of like, how can we message to China |
| 0:56.0 | that hitting our satellites won't impact us? |
| 0:59.0 | Or how can we message to China they can't take Taiwan without risking a protracted war with the United States? |
| 1:04.0 | And I always say the first thing is it has to be true. |
| 1:08.0 | I'm Sarah Fiend-Denani, legal fellow at LawFair. |
| 1:12.0 | And this is the LawFair podcast February 6th, 2022. |
| 1:18.0 | Last week, the United States and the Philippines reached an agreement |
| 1:22.0 | to expand US military operations in the Philippines to deter China's increasingly aggressive actions |
| 1:29.0 | toward Taiwan and in the South China Sea. |
| 1:33.0 | The news was sandwiched between Air Force General Mike Minahan predicting that |
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