This is The Guardian.

A number of investment banks now are forecasting about a 60 to 70% chance of a global recession

as a result of this war if it continues.

We're filling up our national petroleum reserves, strategic, you know, the strategic reserves.

The longer this goes on, the more likely the potential for an impact on our economy,

impact into their lives and households of everybody and every business.

I'm Pippa Carrera.

And I'm Kieran Stacey.

And you're listening to Politics Weekly for The Garden.

Hello.

Hello.

Now Kieran, the UK can't control everything that happens across the globe,

particularly crises in bits of the Middle East, for example. But these crises do still

have an impact on us here at home. And what we can control is our own circumstances, whether that

is a response to the economic fallout of what's happening in Iran or indeed how involved we get

or don't get in the conflict itself.

Now, when it comes to the cost of oil, we've seen what's happened overnight.

Prices have soared over $100 a barrel for US crude.

And we're still just over a week into this conflict.

So we don't know how long it's going to go on or what the long-term impact

will be on energy prices. But inevitably, at some point, they'll affect what's happening here.

And even though we're protected to a certain extent by the energy price cap, which the next

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