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Hello and welcome to a special Saturday edition of Coffee House Shops.

It's Macron heading for a nasty surprise.

To discuss the French elections, I'm joined by Jonathan Miller,

Georgina Wright, who is Director of the Europe Program at Montenna,

and Michael Simmons, who is our data expert.

To begin, Jonathan, can you just set the scene because I think,

and this is probably still the most like a scenario,

but I think lots of people had just presumed that Emmanuel Macron was on for re-election.

Is that still the case?

I think the presumption element of that has gone.

I think probably on the odds, Macron is going to maybe squeak by,

but it's so close now, and of course amongst those who were predicting

that Macron would win was me consistently,

even as I have been hurling bobs at Marine Le Pen for months,

calling her unelectable, calling her an ignoramus on both economic and foreign affairs,

having no coherent policies to offer.

Yet somehow she has come up on the inside lane,

a vanquished, out there, some more, and is very close,

and she could, I think the likelihood she'll be in the rough is very high,

...