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Is An Election Vibe Shift Underway?

FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News

News, Politics

4.620.3K Ratings

🗓️ 25 March 2024

⏱️ 44 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript


Is the presidential election undergoing a vibe shift? At the beginning of the month, former President Donald Trump was performing 10 percentage points better than President Joe Biden in net approval rating. Today that’s fallen to a 4-point advantage. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses what's changed. They also ask why so many representatives in the House are resigning earlier on in their careers and they take a look at a new poll showing Republican Larry Hogan leading in the Maryland Senate race by double digits. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Elliot, what are you doing to manage your poison ivy?


I would be giving you too much information, Gail.


I have taken a few baths in oatmeal, that's all I'll say.


You taken a bath in oatmeal? A few few more than a few. It really helps.


I sort of imagined you like, you know when you drop your iPhone in water and then you have to put it in a bag of rice?


I imagine that like you're the iPhone in this situation


just sitting in a bag of oatmeal. Hello and welcome to the 538 politics podcast I'm Galen Druk.


As we hit record on this very podcast, former President Donald Trump is about


five miles away from where I sit at a courthouse in Lower Manhattan. The question at hand


is when the Stormy Daniels Hush Money case


will go to trial. It was scheduled to begin today but is now expected to start in


mid-April. The broader question though for our purposes is whether the dynamics of the presidential


race are beginning to shift.


Maybe it's due to Trump's baggage and legal quandaries or President Biden hitting the campaign trail in earnest, or the state of the union, or something else.


But at the beginning of this month, Trump was performing 10 points better than Biden in net approval rating.


Today, that advantage has fallen to just four points.


So we're going to talk about what is going on.


We're also going to talk about all these congressional retirements. So far, 48 members of the House, or 11% of the entire body, have announced that they are hanging up their hats. Is this normal or is it a reaction to a dysfunctional


workplace? And we've got a good or bad use of polling example today, a poll showing


Republican Larry Hogan leading his Democratic opponents in the Maryland Senate race by double digits.


Got a lot of headlines last week were the headlines missing some key information. Here with me to discuss it all as senior elections


analyst Nathaniel.


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