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Are US Politics Undergoing A Racial Realignment?

FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News

News, Politics

4.620.3K Ratings

🗓️ 28 March 2024

⏱️ 55 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

A handful of recent polls and election results indicate that American politics may be undergoing a racial realignment, with voters of color challenging traditional partisan alliances. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks about these shifting dynamics with John Burn-Murdoch, chief data reporter for the Financial Times, and Chryl Laird, government and politics professor at the University of Maryland. They explore why voters of color might be shifting right and what it could mean for Democrats. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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0:00.0

Also, I'm going to rid myself of the baby.

0:03.0

Oh my God, baby.

0:06.0

That's I thought it.

0:09.0

Where was she hiding?

0:14.0

She had some food and she's been chillin.

0:16.0

You know?

0:18.0

How is her political analysis? Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics Podcast I'm Galen Druk. It's been well documented that support for

0:35.4

Democrats amongst voters of color declined from 2016 to 2020. According to

0:41.8

Democratic-Aligned Data Analytics firm Catalyst, Latino voters swung

0:46.1

eight points toward Trump, the largest shift of any racial or ethnic group. Black voters

0:52.0

swung a more modest three points to the right

0:54.5

while still going overwhelmingly for Biden. White voters swung three points toward

0:59.9

Biden. But the question since then has been, what happens next? Was that dynamic unique to a

1:06.7

pandemic election or Trump's incumbency or something else? In analyzing the data since 2020, Chief Data

1:14.3

reporter for the Financial Times, John Byrne-Burdock, recently concluded the

1:18.2

following. Quote, American politics is undergoing a racial realignment.

1:23.3

Democrats are rapidly losing non-white voters

1:26.2

as the forces that insured their support weaken.

1:29.6

He looks at the question from several different angles,

1:32.0

according to the data, age, class, and policy preferences amongst voters of color.

1:37.0

One of his conclusions for why this might be happening is that memories of the civil rights era are fading, and that the social pressure, which contributes

1:46.5

to conservative voters of color voting for Democrats despite their views is breaking down.

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