Is a Recession Coming? The Economist Behind the Most Accurate Indicator in History Weighs In

HerMoney with Jean Chatzky

Jean Chatzky Her Money

Investing, Business

4.7 • 1.5K Ratings

🗓️ 12 March 2026

⏱️ 34 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel, three ships were struck near the Strait of Hormuz just yesterday, and the word "recession" is creeping back into the conversation. And we’re all feeling more than just a little bit anxious about what that means for our money. On this special bonus episode, Jean Chatzky sits down with Claudia Sahm, former Fed section chief, senior economist under President Obama, and creator of the Sahm Rule, a recession indicator that has been 100% accurate going back to 1959. Claudia breaks down exactly what's happening with oil prices and why it affects everything from your gas tank to your grocery bill to your retirement account. She explains what the Sahm Rule actually is, why she's cautioning people not to over-rely on it right now, and what she means when she says she just doesn't have "a good feeling" about this economy. Links mentioned: Claudia's Substack: Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) Claudia's writing at Bloomberg Opinion Join InvestingFixx — your first two classes are free! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0	What I've dedicated my life to is revenge.
0:04.7	A brand new drama based on the best-selling novel.
0:07.5	They think they're better than us?
0:08.5	Who do you think you are?
0:09.8	I'm going to prove to them that they're wrong.
0:11.5	She's punishing me.
0:13.0	You destroyed my family.
0:14.3	I will not rest until I've destroyed yours.
0:17.0	A woman of substance on Channel 4 starts tonight at 9.
0:20.9	This episode is brought to you by Vanta.
0:23.6	Security and compliance done wrong is a headache.
0:26.0	Done right, you build trust and grow faster.
0:28.5	That's Vanta.
0:29.6	For startups, Vanta acts as your first security hire,
0:33.1	using AI to get you compliant fast.
0:35.4	For enterprises, it's your AI-powered hub for compliance, risk, and
0:38.9	automating workflows. From startups like Cursa to enterprises like Snowflake, top companies
0:44.1	choose Vantor. Do security and compliance right. Get started today at vanta.com.
0:51.5	Do you think about going to the grocery store and getting your weeks' worth of groceries?
0:56.9	For many things, you know, the diesel is what transports it to the grocery store.
1:01.3	A lot of our packaging has energy products in them.
1:05.8	And so these are smaller costs, right?
	...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Previous episode | Next episode

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Jean Chatzky Her Money, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of Jean Chatzky Her Money and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.