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CONFLICTED

Iran War: Will the Ceasefire Hold?

CONFLICTED

Message Heard

Religion & Spirituality, History

4.71.5K Ratings

🗓️ 10 April 2026

⏱️ 80 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Aimen does his best to explain the sudden and somewhat unexpected ceasefire between the United States and Iran which was announced early on Tuesday. Aimen and Thomas discuss: Pakistan's role: what game are they playing? Russia's delicate balancing act between Iran and the GCC How GCC leaders cope with President Trump's erratic shifts in messaging and policy Did Netanyahu know about the ceasefire in advance? The potential coup in Lebanon which Israel's intervention stopped Whether Lebanon is included in the ceasefire or not What U.S. military hardware is on its way to the region Why European politicians and diplomats still support containment when it comes to Iran while being gung-ho against Russia How energy dependence helps explain the posture of Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey How the Islamabad talks between Vance and Ghalibaf are likely to go down Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Find us on X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. Produced and edited by Thomas Small. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hello, dear listeners.

0:02.0

Conflicted is back. We're one day late, but Amon, you know, I don't think anyone can really

0:06.9

blame us, given the total. Well, you know, I want to call it a cluster duck. I also want to

0:13.6

call it a cluster Donald duck that the world and certainly the region witnessed over the last four or five days.

0:22.7

Holy moly, up and down all the way around.

0:26.3

How are you feeling it must have been just, well, I guess, thrilling, nail-biting, frustrating.

0:33.5

As the narrative switched back and forth, how have you been keeping?

0:38.1

Well, what can I tell you, Thomas?

0:40.3

I mean, it's been a roller coaster of the past 48 hours.

0:44.9

Are we going to see an Armageddon in Iran?

0:49.1

Are we going to see a retreat, another extension, deadlines, the know, the Strait of Hermes, is it going

0:57.9

to be open or not? Will the Iranians capitulate? Will there be a ceasefire or a permanent

1:02.9

end to the conflict? Are the Pakistanis the right sort of mediators? Will the ceasefire cover

1:08.8

Lebanon, you know, or is it just only Iran? I mean, it was. And then when

1:13.1

the announcement came, oh my God, so yeah, you can imagine. Well, dear listeners, you know, I have to remind

1:18.2

you that unlike a lot of people commenting on this war, you know, Aman is not a professional

1:23.9

pundit. He is a professional geopolitical and intelligence analyst and consultant.

1:30.0

And so, you know, the fact that he gives us so much of his time fits us in to what is an

1:34.8

incredibly busy schedule. I woke up the other day to the news of the ceasefire. And we were

1:41.0

meant to record that morning. And so I texted him, uh, Amen, I suppose the events of the last night might delay things a bit. And, you know, I can't

1:49.1

reveal. And you didn't tell me the whole truth, but I was aware that you replied from a very

1:53.5

high-level meeting with very high-level decision makers in the region. In real time, I imagine,

...

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