On this episode of Full Signal, I'm very excited to share. We have Neil Duda of Renaissance Macro.

He is consistently called one of the most accurate forecasters on Wall Street,

and we get into the Fed, his views on rising oil prices and the Iran War,

what it means for investors, and how to think about the macro outlook in 2026.

This is a fantastic conversation. There's a lot of views in here.

I have not heard anywhere else. I think you're going to love it.

Neil, it's great to see you. I know you're typically an optimist, but in the most, the last few

months, you've been getting a little more cautious. Can you walk us through your thesis right now

on the macro outlook?

Yeah, sure. First, thanks for having me, Phil. I really like the between two ferns setup you got in here. Yeah, I mean, for, you know, for me, I think the process on how we think about the

economy hasn't really changed from the time that we were bullish to now. So it really comes down to number

one household incomes. Household incomes are slowing. If you look at real incomes, X transfers,

I mean, they're basically flat over the last year. The other thing I would say is that housing market conditions remain quite sluggish.

So even though the feds cut a few times, if you look at home builder sentiment, it's still

quite weak.

I would suspect that new home sales remain sluggish.

And more importantly, housing starts remain below housing

completions, right? So whenever that's the case, it means that units under construction will keep

coming down. So there's going to be less residential construction activity, I think, going forward.

The third thing I would say is that there's a lot of optimism around tax refunds and the

tax filing season because of OB3.

But in the background, state and local governments are still shedding workers, cutting pay

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