AI is KILLING Big Tech stocks! | Luke Kawa
Full Signal
Phil Rosen
4.8 • 18 Ratings
🗓️ 9 March 2026
⏱️ 29 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Luke Kawa is a veteran financial writer and analyst, and the markets editor at Sherwood Media. He joins Phil Rosen to unpack the market rotation out of Big Tech, weak Magnificent 7 cash flows, the risks of hyperscaler spending, and how AI is showing up in the rates market.
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
00:39 - The Market Is Stalling and Searching For Safety
02:34 - Mag 7 Cash Flow Slide
04:57 - Nvidia's ROI Reality Check
06:56 - Change In Valuations
09:43 - AI Bubble or AI Breakthrough?
13:13 - AI Disruption Hits The Rates Market
16:12 - Private Credit Under Pressure
18:33 - The Stock Market Is the Economy
24:09 - Optimistic Outlook?
28:22 - Where to Follow Luke
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | What's up guys? On this episode of Full Signal, I sit down with Luke Kawa. He is the |
| 0:04.8 | markets editor at Sherwood News and one of the smartest financial writers in the business today. |
| 0:09.8 | We talk about how AI is disrupting the stock market, the software sell-off, what the |
| 0:14.4 | Magnificent Seven are doing and how their valuations have come down and much more. |
| 0:18.9 | This is a fantastic conversation. I learned a ton in this, |
| 0:22.0 | and I think you will too. Luke, I'm super happy you're here today. You do a lot of great work |
| 0:29.8 | on positioning, sentiment, market flows. Can you just start with your big picture view on markets |
| 0:35.2 | right now? Yeah, thanks, thanks done for having me. Great to be here. |
| 0:39.2 | And yeah, I think a very interesting thing about markets is that they've been doing nothing for a long |
| 0:44.3 | period of time. It's, hey, when you're looking at it that closely, I think sometimes the lack of |
| 0:50.1 | movement can, there can be a lot of stories embedded in that as well. So, you know, we have hit |
| 0:54.8 | a fresh all-time high this year earlier in January, but by and large, indexes have been meandering. |
| 1:00.7 | And I would say a lot of the story is the biggest issue for markets is return on AI CAPX. |
| 1:07.6 | And right now, markets seem to be very much in a place where they want to search for safety. |
| 1:14.1 | And there's two kind of ways I would say safety has been exhibited in this market. |
| 1:19.0 | The first is kind of your obvious, your Costco's, your Walmart, things that, you know, no matter |
| 1:23.7 | how bad things get, people are going to go there. People are going to spend a lot of non-discretionary purchases, some discretionary as well, but hey, they're in Staples for a reason. And then second is there is an AI cash flow that represents safety, I think, in the minds of investors and that people are very willing to pour into. And that's the memory side. That's the effectively the amount of price hikes you've seen in |
| 1:45.2 | the space, the longevity of the supply demand imbalance that's expected to persist. And the fact that a |
| 1:51.1 | lot of these stocks were trading at, you know, very low double digits or in some case single |
| 1:55.8 | digits, PEs, that's a lot safer in terms of investing than perhaps getting into one of the bigger chip makers. |
| 2:03.2 | So you have a name like Sandisk, which is up over 100% this year. |
| 2:07.3 | And the P has gone down. |
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