Hello and welcome to the GZero World Podcasts.

This is where you can find extended versions of my conversations on public television.

I'm Ian Bremmer, and today, I'm asking a question that sounds strangely familiar at this point in President Trump's second term.

Will the United States strike Iran again?

There was another round of talks this week between

American and Iranian officials in Geneva, but military action appears increasingly imminent.

Tehran has shown little willingness to negotiate on its ballistic missile program or its support

for regional proxies, both non-negotiables for Israel, America's closest

regional ally, nor does Iran appear open to President Trump's demand that it halt all nuclear

enrichment. At his State of the Union addressed this week, the president made clear that his patience

is running thin. I will never allow the world's number one sponsor of terror, which they are by far, to have a

nuclear weapon. Can't let that happen.

So the question shifts from where the strikes will happen to what form they might take.

Over the past month, the Pentagon has deployed the largest concentrations of U.S. naval

and air power to the Middle East in decades, including two carrier strike groups.

If Venezuela was any indication, President Trump is unlikely to assemble that kind of force without intending to use it.

There is debate inside the administration about whether to pursue a full decapitation strike

targeting Iran's leadership or to begin with more limited military action.

Oil markets for now are betting that any strikes would be contained and would not trigger

major retaliation.

That may prove correct, but there's always the risk that it doesn't.

Escalation could come quickly, especially if Iran or its proxies,

...