Instant Reaction: US Payrolls Marked Down a Record 911,000 in Preliminary Estimate
Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg
3.8 • 1.2K Ratings
🗓️ 9 September 2025
⏱️ 14 minutes
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Summary
US job growth was far less robust in the year through March than previously reported, adding to mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
The number of workers on payrolls will likely be revised down by a record 911,000, or 0.6%, according to the government’s preliminary benchmark revision out Tuesday. The final figures are due early next year.
Before the report, the government’s payrolls data indicated employers added nearly 1.8 million total jobs in the year through March on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, or an average of 149,000 per month. The revision showed average monthly job growth was roughly half that.
For instant reaction and analysis, Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Scarlet Fu spoke with:
- Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist
- Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent
- Stephanie Roth, Wolfe Research chief Economist
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Transcript
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| 0:28.5 | Bloomberg Audio Studios. |
| 0:30.7 | Podcasts, radio, news. |
| 0:34.6 | This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg. |
| 0:38.9 | Instant reaction and analysis from our 3,000 journalists and analysts around the world. |
| 0:46.1 | Good morning, everyone, Scarlet Fu and Tom Keen, and as Scarlet Fu predicted, it didn't come in, |
| 0:51.4 | but there is the first print of this preliminary number, and it is toward what we heard from Dr. England or Scarlett. |
| 0:58.0 | I'm going to suggest negative 9-1-1 is a wow statistic. |
| 1:03.0 | We begin strong in the special edition of Bloomberg surveillance with Ira Jersey of Bloomberg Intelligence. |
| 1:09.0 | Ira, I guess we see an economic statistic 300,000 or so off the mark. |
| 1:16.6 | What does it mean for a bond market to see our labor so beleaguered? |
| 1:22.6 | Well, I think these revisions are very hard to forecast, I mean, by definition, because they cover |
| 1:30.0 | such a long period of time. |
| 1:33.0 | But the fact that we had even slower employment growth than we thought and had forecasted, |
| 1:40.2 | clearly the market took that as bad for the economy. And that's the reason why you saw bond yields |
| 1:45.0 | go from up a little bit in the front end to flat to maybe a little bit lower in the front end. |
| 1:51.0 | Importantly, I think here it just shows that the Federal Reserve has to take this into consideration |
| 1:57.0 | when they deliberate next week what to do with interest rates. And it just solidifies even more that they're going to cut next week. |
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