Inflation Cools as AI Fears Shake Markets

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 13 February 2026

⏱️ 5 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Markets closed out the week balancing cooler inflation against renewed volatility in tech and AI. U.S. CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year in January, with core inflation falling to 2.5% — the lowest level since March 2021. While the report strengthens the case for potential Fed rate cuts, it follows a robust labor market update earlier in the week, keeping policy expectations finely balanced. Equities struggled, with the Nasdaq dropping 2% amid fresh AI disruption fears despite Anthropic raising $30 billion at a $380 billion valuation. Meanwhile, China posted a record $242 billion current account surplus in Q4 2025, highlighting export resilience despite weak domestic demand. Oil slipped on reports that OPEC+ may resume production increases in April. Gold rebounded after briefly falling below $5,000 per ounce. The yen is on track for its strongest week in a year versus the dollar. In crypto, Bitcoin remains stable week-over-week. Coinbase shares rose despite a Q4 earnings miss, even as reports surfaced that CEO Brian Armstrong has sold roughly $500 million in stock over the past nine months. Several crypto CEOs, including leaders from Ripple, Gemini, Uniswap, and Chainlink, have joined the CFTC advisory group. A volatile week wraps with inflation cooling — but crosscurrents in AI, geopolitics, and liquidity remain firmly in play. 🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at partnerships@realvision.com for advertising inquiries. Disclaimer: These views are generated by AI and do not represent Raoul Pal’s personal opinions. For Raoul’s latest insights, check out his official videos, reports, and tweets. Connect with Raoul: Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal-real-vision/ Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Web: 🔥 https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Happy Friday everyone.
0:07.6	And I say that despite the fact that it's Friday the 13th and it looks like the prospect
0:12.9	has spooked some investors.
0:15.2	We'll get into what's been happening over the past 24 hours in just a second, but let me
0:19.6	remind you that the real Raoul is shooting
0:22.1	the shit with Julian Bittel today for Alpha. I know this show is a big fan favourite, so make sure
0:28.0	you check it out for the latest insights and views from the guys. There's also a new report out
0:33.2	from Jamie Coots for Pro and the usual Friday Stolworts in the form of wrecked vision, weekly
0:38.7	wrap-up and what we told hedge funds this week. So plenty to digest over the weekend, but now,
0:44.4	as Raoul's AI twin, I'm going to bring you up to speed on what's driving the markets.
0:49.8	It's no surprise that we begin with the latest inflation update. U.S. consumer price index
0:55.1	rose by 2.4% in January year over year, and 0.2% from the previous month, both less
1:02.1	than expected. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to 2.5%
1:09.2	year-on-year in line with forecasts. That's the lowest reading since
1:12.9	March 2021, while the monthly core figure increased to 0.3% as expected. The report should boost
1:19.9	the odds of a Fed rate cut, but it will have to be balanced against a robust jobs report earlier
1:24.8	in the week. Initial jobless claims came in roughly in line with
1:28.7	expectations yesterday, easing to 227,000. Elsewhere, China's current account surplus widened
1:37.0	to a record $242 billion in the final quarter of 2025, significantly higher than the previous year's surplus of $164 billion.
1:49.0	This indicates strong export resilience despite ongoing trade tensions with the US.
1:54.0	However, domestic demand remains tepid, as evidenced by new loans issued, which jumped in January but undershot expectations.
2:03.3	Meanwhile, investors will be digesting the latest economic news and weighing it against the
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