In the Fourth Week, Is Russia Revising its War Aims Amidst Attrition?
War on the Rocks
War on the Rocks
4.6 • 1.1K Ratings
🗓️ 21 March 2022
⏱️ 36 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Michael Kofman joins Ryan once again to help us understand the Russo-Ukrainian War as its fourth week unfolds. They cover a lot of ground: Mike updates us on the three fronts — where Russian forces are making progress and where they are not — and how the stalling campaign might drive Moscow to dramatically change its war aims. He also explains why it's hard to gauge the condition of Ukrainian forces, how Putin's stated aim of Ukraine's 'demilitarization' is playing out in terms of strikes against Ukraine's industrial base, and what role Belarusian forces might (but probably won't) play in the conflict. Mike and Ryan also discuss the effects of sanctions on the Russian military industrial base, detentions of senior Russian security officials, how long Russian military manpower can last, the role of elite infantry units in this campaign, and the chilling repressive apparatus that seems to be taking shape in Russian-occupied portions of Ukraine. Kofman provides a bracing warning: this war can still get worse in terms of the human cost as it transforms into war of attrition.
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | You are listening to the War on the Rocks podcast on Strategy, Defense and Foreign Affairs. |
| 0:14.6 | My name is Ryan Evans, of course of War on the Rocks, and I'm sitting here again for the fourth week in |
| 0:18.8 | row with Michael Kaufman of CNA and we're going to talk about the ongoing war in Ukraine which is now entering its fourth week. |
| 0:26.0 | Mike, last time you walked us through the three fronts of this war, southern, eastern, and northern. |
| 0:34.4 | And I think it might be useful to revisit that. |
| 0:37.3 | Students of military history know that it is not uncommon for the aims of a war to change as the |
| 0:41.8 | war goes on and unexpected things happen. |
| 0:44.8 | As the war unfolds, as things change, as new developments happen, Mike, you've discussed |
| 0:49.6 | on this podcast how this initially started as a sort of bungled minimal force regime |
| 0:55.8 | change operation where Putin sort of drank his own Kool-Aid. |
| 0:58.8 | It has now evolved into analyst's a grinding conflict. |
| 1:03.0 | What do you think has changed in terms of the Russian war aims and the Russian calculus? |
| 1:08.0 | This of course is just one analyst's impression, but I think after the failed initial operation at regime change, |
| 1:16.1 | they then settled in into a series of efforts which still from a military strategy seemed very unsound and I think they were |
| 1:25.9 | driven by the local objectives and completely unrealistic timetable so you saw them trying to drive two pincers to the |
| 1:33.6 | Ukrainian capital Kiev to encircle it. That effort looked like it |
| 1:38.8 | ultimately hasn't succeeded. Then you saw a larger attempt in development of the Ukrainian forces in the joint |
| 1:46.1 | force operation on the Dunbar in the eastern part of the country and at the same time |
| 1:51.8 | in a push west to get around Nikolayev towards the desert, right? |
| 1:56.5 | And this made a little sense because that took precious forces away |
| 2:00.2 | from the other efforts in the south around the city of Maripul which they've |
| 2:04.1 | trying to take and around the development of the Ukrainian force in the JFO right |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from War on the Rocks, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of War on the Rocks and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.