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From the opinion pages of the Wall Street Journal. This is Free Expression with Jerry Baker.

Hello and welcome to free expression from the opinion pages of the Wall Street Journal.

Very happy new year to all of you.

I hope you had a great holiday.

I'm Jerry Baker.

I'm editor at large of the journal.

If you're not already subscribing to Free Expression, please do sign up at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you do, you're listening. Well, this week, well, it's finally here,

election year. We are now just over a week away from the first votes to be cast in the 2024

U.S. presidential election. Iowans go to their party caucuses a week from Monday, the 15th January,

and then a week later, it's the New Hampshire primary. But are the two parties' primary race

is actually over before they've even started? Donald Trump continues to hold a huge lead in opinion

polls over all comers in the Republican primary race, and Joe Biden is comfortably ahead

of any democratic challenges

and seemingly determined to run for another term, despite doubts about his age and ability to do the job.

And yet history tells us that counting votes before they've been cast is always a somewhat perilous

business, and the prognostications of pundits can be as flawed this close to the actual voting

...