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From the opinion pages of the Wall Street Journal, this is Free Expression with Jerry Baker.

Hello and welcome to free expression from the opinion pages of the Wall Street Journal.

I'm Jerry Baker, editor at large of the journal. If you're not already a subscriber,

please do sign up at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you do. You're listening.

This week, just days before the first votes are cast in the 2024 presidential election,

I'm delighted to be joined by my Wall Street Journal Opinion page colleague Kimberly Strassel

as we take a look at the coming year in politics, policy and elections.

Kim, as you all well know, writes the Potomac Watch column every week for the journal's editorial pages, and is a regular on our sister podcast, also called Potomac Watch. So with all that Potomac watching going on in her life, I can't think of a better observer to tell us what's happening in the roiling waters of American politics from the Potomac to the Pacific. Kim, welcome to free expression. Oh, Jerry, it's great to be here. I love free expression. So it's an honor to get to be with you. Well, I love Potomac, but we're not going to waste too much time on mutual back scratching. Let's start then as we look ahead at this very, very important year, roughly halfway between Washington and the West Coast. And that, of course, would be Iowa, where next Monday Republicans will go to the caucuses

and vote for their presidential preference. And, of course, tonight, we're recording this, I should say,

on Wednesday morning tonight. There will be perhaps critical final debate between just two

candidates this time, Nikki Haley and Rhonda Santos. Donald Trump was the only one who qualified

for the debate, but of course, it was once again chosen not to take part, and instead doing a counter-programming also in Iowa to be shown at roughly the same time. So we're into the final few days, Kim here. This is all relative. Donald Trump is obviously the prohibitive leader in Iowa and indeed everywhere else. But it was always thought that Ronda Santis kind of had the best chance maybe of challenging Trump in Iowa. But in the recent weeks and days, I think we've really seen that the race for second place tightening, there's a poll just out, I think, today, which actually shows Nikki Haley tied with Ronda Santis for second place, again, a long way behind Donald Trump. And then, of course, we've got New Hampshire to come, where Nikki Haley does seem to be really making some significant stride. So my first question to you, Kim, is does Nicky Haley right now have the Big Mo? I think she does. And that's what makes Iowa, this is a make or break moment, in particular for Ron DeSantis. As you note, he burst onto the scene. Everyone saw him as the guy to beat, at least when it came to a head-to-head with Donald

Trump. He struggled, though, and he has raised expectations for himself very high in the state,

and that is now the burden he must carry. So, you know, he's made a big deal of noting that he's been

to all 99 counties, the whole Grassley in Iowa. He has vowed that he will win the state.

And he's also looking at a prospect where the next state, New Hampshire, is not a strong place for him.

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