4.4 • 677 Ratings
🗓️ 30 May 2023
⏱️ 64 minutes
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On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by fellow Stansberry Research analysts John Doody and Garrett Goggin. John, an ex-economics professor, started Gold Stock Analyst (GSA) in 1994 and even popularized the metric "market cap per ounce." Meanwhile, Garrett is a chartered financial analyst and certified market technician who started his career on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange before ultimately joining GSA in 2010. Dan and Corey start off by talking about how economists have continued to call for a recession in the coming three months... for the past nine months. With consumer spending growing, gross domestic product ("GDP") rising, and the housing market looking better, the two discuss the possibility that we're already in a recession... and question whether we need to reevaluate the criteria for a recession. Dan notes that despite two consecutive quarters of negative GDP – the textbook definition of a recession – an official recession has still not been called. John and Garrett then join the conversation to discuss the recent run on banks. Garrett notes that the federal-funds rate is too high. With the economy slowing down, he says that the Federal Reserve will have to start cutting rates soon. Plus, if the government raises the debt ceiling, the Fed's balance sheet will continue higher. This will be a good thing for gold. As Garrett explains... A banker's best friend is a shareholder's worst enemy. The conversation then shifts to John's gold stock portfolio. He mentions that he only looks for companies that have already completed a feasibility study or are already in the production stage. John points out that the gold companies in his portfolio are all at different stages in the process. He also warns that there could be a two- to three-year period after the feasibility study where nothing exciting happens to the stock. Adding to that, Garrett emphasizes that when looking at gold companies, it's imperative to analyze how the company is being managed. That way, you can make sure it's generating good shareholder value. Lastly, Garrett and John argue that royalty companies are structured to get lucky... by locking in costs. The companies do this so that as the price of gold rises, they can continue expanding. As long as one of its 100 mines does well, a royalty company will thrive. Royalty stocks certainly have their benefits in comparison with mining stocks. But as John and Garrett discuss, mining stocks are also extremely leveraged.
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0:00.0 | Hello and welcome to the Stansberry Investor Hour. |
0:03.0 | I'm Dan Ferris. |
0:04.0 | I'm the editor of Extreme Value and the Ferris Report, both published by Stansberry Research. |
0:09.0 | And I'm Corey McLaughlin, editor of the Stansberry Daily Digest. |
0:12.0 | Today we talked with Gold Stock analyst editor John Judy and his partner, Garrett Gock. |
0:17.0 | And today, first, we'll talk about economists and recessions and whether it means anything at all for investors. |
0:25.0 | And remember, if you want to get in touch with us, send a note to Feedback at InvestorHour.com and tell us what's on your mind. |
0:31.5 | That and more right now on the Stansberry Investor Hour. |
0:50.5 | One of the best quotes I've heard over the years about anything in finance is all the world's economists laid end-to-end couldn't reach a conclusion. |
0:55.9 | I like to cite that whenever anybody brings up what economists think. |
1:00.9 | And I thought of it this morning because Bloomberg has this article that's called |
1:07.1 | Recession Calls Keep Getting Pushed Back, Giving Soft Landing Believers Hope. And it's all about all these economists who... that's called recession calls keep getting pushed back, giving soft landing believers hope. |
1:12.2 | And it's all about all these economists who basically have been calling for a recession |
1:17.2 | to begin in three months for a year or something, I mean, for at least since last September. |
1:25.5 | So, you know, here we are. We're however many months that, what, |
1:30.0 | five plus four, nine months out and no recession yet. And they're still predicting three more |
1:37.5 | months, three more months, three more months. And, you know, consumer spending is growing. |
1:43.5 | Housing looks better than it did a month or two ago and other things. And, you know, consumer spending is growing. Housing looks better than it did a month or two ago |
1:46.3 | and other things. And, you know, the GDP is rising. So I don't know. Are we ever going to get a |
1:52.9 | recession? Are they ever going to stop calling for one? I don't know. There's a couple things that |
1:57.7 | come to mind here for me. |
2:06.5 | One, could we already be in a recession just without that high unemployment number? |
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