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Stansberry Investor Hour

The Slow-Moving Reality of the Housing Cycle and Inflation Concerns With Bob Elliott

Stansberry Investor Hour

Stansberry Research

America, How, To, Crash, Money, Learn, Stansberry, Income, Research, Debt, Stocks, Porter, Business, Realestate, Banking, Investment, American, Investing, Invest, Howtosave, Sjuggerud, Ferris, Eifrig, Jubilee, Buck, Sexton, Market, Bonds, Churchouse, Savings, Options, Lashmet

4.4677 Ratings

🗓️ 15 May 2023

⏱️ 65 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In the latest episode of Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Bob Elliott to the show. Bob is the co-founder, CEO, and chief information officer of Unlimited, a firm that uses machine learning to create products that replicate index returns. Bob drops in to share his valuable perspective on inflation intricacies and supply-chain issues. 

But first, Dan and Corey address the unique challenges the housing market is facing right now... particularly how homeowners are holding on to their properties due to historically low mortgage rates. While advantageous for homeowners, this trend has reduced housing supply and subsequently driven prices upward.

Bob Elliott then joins the conversation to provide his insights on the current state of the Consumer Price Index. He highlights the underlying inflation in the economy, which is closely tied to wages and service prices, resulting in a stable inflation rate of 5%. He explains...

"Once we started to get a flattening out of oil prices... and used auto prices... those going from falling to flat has a positive pressure on inflation."

Bob also delves into the gradual nature of housing cycles and the dynamics of the housing market throughout and following the pandemic.

"That's the nature of these cycles... They don't progress rapidly. They aren't the kind of force that will drastically alter the Federal Reserve's outlook within the next three months."

Bob explains that numerous structural and tactical factors influence these cycles. However, as input costs decrease, construction activity is expected to increase, which will eventually stimulate economic growth.

➡️ Watch Here

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hello and welcome to the Stansberry Investor Hour. I'm Dan Ferris. I'm the editor of Extreme Value and The Ferris Report, both published by Stansberry Research.

0:10.0

And I'm Corey McLaughlin, editor of the Stansberry Daily Digest. Today we talk with Bob Elliott of unlimited funds and formerly of Bridgewater Associates.

0:19.0

And before we do that, we're going to talk about housing and the lack of it available

0:25.2

on the market today.

0:26.5

And remember, if you want to send us a note, send it to feedback at investor hour.com.

0:31.6

Tell us what's on your mind.

0:33.1

That and more right now on the Stansberry Investor Hour.

0:41.2

How and more right now on the Stansberry Investor Hour. Housing. So we all know that there is, or I hope we all know, that there continues to be a

0:48.8

structural shortage. We're at multi-year lows of housing inventory in the United States. And one of the

0:57.1

reasons for that is that people don't want to sell their house if they have a 3% mortgage for,

1:04.3

you know, a 30-year fixed 3% mortgage. So, I mean, I'm not, I'm not, mine's 2.8. And I told my wife, she wanted to move in

1:15.0

2021 to be closer to the grandkids. I was like, yeah, okay, this will work out, but we are

1:20.4

never moving again. Right. Yeah. I think we talked about this. I don't remember when it was

1:25.7

many months ago, but this idea.

1:29.0

And I'm with you.

1:30.7

Yeah, I refinanced, I refied at under three as well.

1:38.0

And because obviously it made financial sense, you know, and I think a lot of other people attempted to do that as well

1:45.8

if they were paying attention

1:46.9

and those same people

1:49.7

why would you move

1:51.2

if that matters to you

1:54.5

if your mortgage rate matters to you

...

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