4.4 • 677 Ratings
🗓️ 30 May 2023
⏱️ 71 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Alfonso "Alf" Peccatiello. He's the founder and CEO of disruptive investment-strategy firm The Macro Compass. His company provides educational macroeconomic analysis and professional portfolio strategies to bridge the gap between Wall Street and everyday investors. And Alf brings those same skills to the podcast by simplifying complex topics for our listeners.
Dan and Corey begin the episode by talking about chipmaker Nvidia. Its recent earnings report sent shares soaring and prompted one of the biggest moves in U.S. stock market history by market cap. Part of the reason for that big move was the company projecting a huge increase in sales next quarter. The chips that Nvidia makes will help with the coming artificial-intelligence revolution, so investors are buying in hand over fist. However, Dan and Corey question whether the company is worth these high valuations.
Alf then joins the conversation to discuss the debt ceiling. He predicts that U.S. politicians will probably reach a deal to raise it... but he also analyzes the magnitude and severity of damage to economic growth that a default would bring. Alf further explains that he believes Republican Party members are using time to their advantage to try to get the best out of the deal, since the Democrats took more time to start negotiations. Regardless of what happens with the deal, he warns... Investors must always have attackers and defenders in their portfolio.
Next, Alf mentions the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes and how those have caused U.S. stocks to remain relatively expensive. But even with this poor outlook for U.S. stocks, he points out that you can still find "attackers" in Japanese stocks. With the country's nominal growth picking up, wages rising over 4%, and the new Bank of Japan governor not rushing to raise interest rates, Japanese equities are reasonably valued and poised for growth.
Lastly, Alf and Dan revisit March's banking meltdown. Alf notes that loose regulations led to terrible risk management, but he argues that the rest of the banking industry will not be affected much. Now, though, the second part of the problem is exposure to commercial real estate, credit quality, and the asset quality of bank loans. In short, the banking system is deteriorating. Tune in to hear Alf and Dan's take on what's coming next so you can prepare yourself for this slow-moving train wreck.
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0:00.0 | Hello and welcome to the Stansberry Investor Hour. I'm Dan Ferris. I'm the editor of Extreme Value |
0:08.3 | and the Ferris Report, both published by Stansberry Research. And I'm Corey McLaughlin, editor of the |
0:13.9 | Stansberry Daily Digest. Today we talk with Alfonso Pekitello, editor of the Macro Compass. |
0:20.1 | And today, Corey and I will talk about |
0:21.9 | Nvidia and Fed Funds Futures. |
0:24.4 | And remember, if you want to get in touch with us, |
0:26.3 | send a note to Feedback at InvestorHour.com |
0:29.3 | and tell us what's on your mind. |
0:30.7 | That and more right now |
0:32.1 | on the Stansberry Investor Hour. |
0:41.1 | Let's talk about, and we have to talk about invidia. |
0:44.7 | First of all, we decided that I don't know how to pronounce it, or one of us does. |
0:47.9 | Somebody said Navidia, somebody said invidia, I said invidia, whatever. |
0:53.3 | And I said the N is silent, and we'll just call it Vidia. |
0:56.2 | Vidia. |
0:56.8 | All right. |
0:57.7 | So Vidia went up a bunch on Wednesday. |
1:05.7 | They had a good earnings report and they projected a huge increase in second quarter sales first quarter sales |
1:12.6 | were up but what was it like 16 percent or something and second quarter sales they said would be |
1:19.3 | 11 billion which year over year for the quarter is like 60 percent or something it's huge it's some |
1:25.4 | huge amount so you know the stock was up like 24% the next day. |
1:32.4 | And there are all kinds of good little bits in the news about how much that is. It's like, |
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