How To Lock In Higher Yields In Case Interest Rates Fall
Money For the Rest of Us
J. David Stein
4.5 • 1.4K Ratings
🗓️ 24 January 2024
⏱️ 33 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
With cash yields expected to fall, here's how you can keep your portfolio income elevated by purchasing longer-term individual bonds and bullet ETFs
Topics covered include:
- How future short-term interest rates, inflation expectations, and term premiums impact long-term interest rates
- How each of those rate drivers contributed to the close to 1% drop in interest rates in the past three months
- How yield to maturity is our guide to locking in a fixed return using individual bonds or bullet ETFs
- How bullet ETFs work and what are some examples
- What are callable bonds and how to analyze them
- How to analyze municipal bonds
- Why we might want to lock in higher yields today
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Show Notes
Term Premium on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond—FRED Economic Data
Investments Mentioned
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)
Invesco BulletShares 2030 Corporate Bond ETF (BCSU)
iShares iBonds Dec 2026 Term Trust ETF (IBTG)
Invesco BulletShares 2031 High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (BSJV)
Related Episodes
455: Easier Investing, Richer Life: TIPS Ladders to Annuities
453: The Price of Money – 700 Years of Falling, Can Interest Rates Keep Rising?
452: Beyond Stocks: The Allure and Strategy of Credit Investments
448: Where Are Interest Rates Headed Next? Insights from the Jackson Hole Symposium
418: Bond Investing Masterclass
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Money for the rest of us. This is a personal finance show on money, how it works, how to invest it, and how to live without worrying about it. |
| 0:10.0 | I'm your host David Stein. Today is episode 463. It's titled How to Lock In Hire Yields, in case |
| 0:16.9 | interest rates fall. Last week in our free insiders guide email newsletter, I wrote about how the consensus of financial market |
| 0:27.5 | participants is that cash yields will fall. Central banks are the entities that determine what cash yields are because the yields on cash, |
| 0:39.0 | such as for CDs, money market mutual funds, are tied to Central Bank policy rates. |
| 0:46.7 | Right now the US Federal Reserve policy rate, also known as the Federal Funds |
| 0:51.0 | rate, is in a range between 5.25% and 5.5%. |
| 0:56.2 | And it's been that way since July. |
| 0:58.6 | The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes a chart where they look at expectations for the policy rate going out into the future, |
| 1:09.3 | and market participants expect the feds fund rate to be less than 4% by September 2024 and |
| 1:17.0 | will end the year around 3.6%. |
| 1:21.0 | That's a 1.5% reduction in what we can earn on cash. |
| 1:26.0 | After sending out that email newsletter, which you can sign up for at Money for the Rest of us.com, |
| 1:31.0 | one of our listeners wrote, |
| 1:33.2 | given that cash yields are predicted to fall would bullet |
| 1:36.7 | EDFs lock in current rates. If so, why wouldn't investors |
| 1:41.5 | who believe the falling yield prediction lock in current rates |
| 1:44.8 | well into the future? That's what we're going to discuss in today's episode. How to go about doing that, |
| 1:50.4 | including what's a bullet ETF. |
| 1:53.0 | Longer-term interest rates are a function of expectations for future short-term interest rates. |
| 2:02.0 | I just relayed how the market expects short-term |
| 2:05.3 | interest rates cash yields in the future the policy rate to be lower by the end of |
... |
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