How reliable are the polls?
Americano
The Spectator
4.0 • 762 Ratings
🗓️ 20 October 2020
⏱️ 18 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hello, I'm Amber Athe, Washington editor of The Spectator, and I'm here to tell you about our fantastic new election offer. |
| 0:08.3 | Go to spectator.us slash election offer and subscribe to get three months free access to the Spectator U.S. website and our new app available on the Apple and Google Play stores. Make sure you're getting |
| 0:23.0 | the very best coverage and commentary in the run-up to November 3rd. Find out more at |
| 0:28.6 | spectator.us slash election offer. |
| 0:37.3 | Hello and welcome to the Americano podcast. This is an election year. Will Donald Trump be re-elected? |
| 0:44.0 | What is going on with the Democrats? And has America gone even more crazy? We'll be discussing all of these things and more. More than once a week, because we don't feel you have enough |
| 0:54.8 | Americano in your life. I'm joined today by Marcus Roberts, who is head of international projects |
| 1:00.0 | at UGov, and we're going to be talking about the latest polls. Now, Marcus, I understand that |
| 1:05.0 | you gov have just had the latest batch of U.S. polls in, what are they telling you? |
| 1:11.2 | They're telling us that it looks like a Biden win is still the most likely result of all. |
| 1:17.4 | In our MRP model, which takes into account lots of different sources of data, |
| 1:23.4 | primarily driven by the battlegrounds polls, but also informed by national polling and other sources. |
| 1:29.0 | We're seeing the following. |
| 1:30.8 | Trump at 44%, Biden at 53%. |
| 1:35.3 | If that was converted, our MRP is telling us it would result in the electoral college win of 356 EVs, electoral college votes to Vice President Biden, and 182 to President Trump. |
| 1:49.9 | If we look below those national numbers, we see an interesting picture. We see Biden campaign |
| 1:56.6 | four points ahead in Arizona, 50 to 46, three points ahead in Georgia, 50 to 47, three points |
| 2:04.8 | ahead in Florida, 50 to 47, and just one point behind at 49 to 48 in both Ohio and Iowa. |
| 2:13.8 | Two points ahead for Joe Biden in North Carolina, 50 to 48. So a close race in some of those |
| 2:21.6 | stretch goals states for Vice President Biden, but a little bit more movement in some of the |
| 2:28.1 | places which are absolutely necessary to a minimum win scenario of just making it over the 270 line for Vice President Biden. |
| 2:37.0 | Thanks really to the high single-digit leads that we continue to show the Democrats |
... |
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