🇺🇦 How Real is Russia’s Retreat?

This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Podmasters

News, Society & Culture, Politics

4.9 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 31 March 2022

⏱️ 38 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

It has been over a month since Russia invaded Ukraine, but with Kyiv still yet to fall Kremlin officials have announced plans to withdraw troops from the region. Where did Russia’s war go so wrong? Is this retreat real, or is Putin wargaming for something bigger? Dr Mike Martin, a former British Army officer and author of Why We Fight, joins Arthur Snell to discuss Russia’s apparent withdrawal, and where the conflict could go next. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/carrd.co/ “The Russians only have around 200,000 soldiers, but you need around a million to hold Ukraine.” “The people at the top of the Ukrainian army would’ve served in the Soviet army, so they are aware of how it operates.” “Russia have a number of commitments that tie up their forces… they’re very worried about China.” “Syrians and Central Africans are being paid by Russia to fight. They wouldn’t be calling on these people if they had a formed reserve.” “As far as the Ukrainians are concerned, this is a fight for national survival, and the public are behind them.” “Russia are shifting their goals because they need some kind of domestic victory.” “If you look through history, Russian leaders don’t survive when they lose wars.” “A fighting retreat is probably the most difficult land manoeuvre to execute.” “If costs aren’t imposed on Russia like they weren’t in 2014, then they will come again and finish the job off.” “Even for the propagandists in the Kremlin, using nukes is a step too far.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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0:58.9	I'm Arthur Snell. A major war is taking place on the European continent with Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
1:08.9	Bringing you a series of special episodes to help you understand the crisis as it unfolds.
1:13.9	This is Doomsday Watch. Welcome back to Doomsday Watch. We hope you're finding these war
1:24.3	bulletins valuable. Quick reminder that you can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon
1:29.9	from as little as £3 per month. Just search Patreon Doomsday Watch or follow the link in the show notes.
1:37.9	Welcome to Doomsday Watch. In the first series we heard from Mike Martin, former soldier, academic
1:45.9	and expert on conflict. Mike's come back to us to talk about the war in Ukraine. Mike, welcome.
1:52.9	Hey Arthur. So Mike, let's get straight into this. You've been tracking this war since the first day
1:59.9	and for anyone who hasn't seen your threads on Twitter they should look them up. Right at the beginning
2:04.9	you identified that the Russians didn't seem to have enough soldiers to mount a full invasion of Ukraine
2:11.9	but then they tried to do that anyway. So how did that work out? Yeah, in fact my original predictions
2:16.9	they wouldn't invade because they only had 200,000 soldiers and you probably need about a million
2:22.9	to wander into Ukraine and topple the government. And predictably it's been a bit of a disaster
	...

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