How Population Trends Will Impact Growth, Inflation, Investing, and Well Being
Money For the Rest of Us
J. David Stein
4.5 • 1.4K Ratings
🗓️ 27 July 2022
⏱️ 28 minutes
🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS
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Summary
How slowing population growth and an eventual population peak will lead to competition for foreign workers, potentially higher inflation, and ultimately the need to transition to a steady-state economy rather than one based on constantly producing more.
Topics covered include:
- How longevity and birthrates impact population growth
- What areas of the world are seeing population increases versus declines
- Why high income countries will need more immigrants in order to sustain their population levels
- When is global population expected to peak and at what level
- Will greater dependency ratios lead to higher inflation
- What is the difference between growth and development
- How slowing population growth will impact investments
- Why the world will need to transition to a steady-state economy focused on well-being rather than growth
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Show Notes
Five Key Findings from the 2022 UN Population Prospects by Hannah Ritchie, et al.
Germany Plans to Simplify Immigration Rules to Combat Labour Shortage—Schengen Visa
High Cost Deters IT Gurus from Filling Luxembourg Jobs by Kate Oglesby
Will Inflation Make a Comeback as Populations Age? by Olli Rehn
The Enduring Link Between Demography and Inflation by Mikael Juselius and Elöd Takáts
Economics for a Full World by Herman Daly
This Pioneering Economist Says Our Obsession with Growth Must End by David Marchese
The Environmental Kuznets Curve by David I. Stern
Small Is Beautiful: Economics as if People Mattered by Ernst F. Schumacher
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Money for the Rest of Us. This is a personal financial show on money. |
| 0:05.0 | How it works, how to invest it, and how to live without worrying about it. |
| 0:09.0 | I'm your host, David Stein. |
| 0:11.0 | Today is episode 395. It's titled How Population Trends Will Impact Growth, |
| 0:16.0 | Inflation, Investing, and Well-Being. |
| 0:20.0 | This month, the United Nations released their World Population Prospects. |
| 0:27.0 | This revision for 2022 looks at a range of plausible outcomes |
| 0:33.0 | at the global level, regionally, and nationally. |
| 0:37.0 | Current World Population in 2022 is about 8 billion individuals. |
| 0:44.0 | Based on the UN's latest projections, World Population is expected to be |
| 0:50.0 | 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, and 10.4 billion in 2100. |
| 1:00.0 | Importantly, World Population is expected to peak in 2086 at 10.4 billion. |
| 1:10.0 | Consequently, those last 14 years, World Population is expected to stagnate to stop growing. |
| 1:17.0 | Global Population trends are determined by birth rates and life expectancy. |
| 1:23.0 | At the national level, the other factor that impacts it is net migration. |
| 1:29.0 | Are immigrants allowed into the country or are migrants leaving? |
| 1:35.0 | In 2019, global life expectancy reached 72.8 years. |
| 1:41.0 | That is 9 years greater, life expectancy since 1990. |
| 1:47.0 | But it actually shrank in 2021, from 72.8 years down to 71 years due to COVID. |
| 1:54.0 | The expectation, though, by the UN, is that average longevity will reach 77.2 years by 2050. |
| 2:03.0 | So about 6 years longer than it was in 2021. |
| 2:07.0 | Life expectancy for women is higher than for men, about 5.4 years. |
... |
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