How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did

FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News

News, Politics

4.6 • 20.6K Ratings

🗓️ 6 February 2023

⏱️ 61 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. How did the polling averages and seat-gain projections compare with the actual results? If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:30.0	Did you see how New York Magazine put out a new set of etiquette guidelines?
0:36.0	Like, that was so cringey.
0:38.0	Did you think any of them were good?
0:40.0	Some of them were good, but most of them were good.
0:42.0	Good or bad advice?
0:44.0	When casually asked how you are, say good.
0:47.0	100% agree.
0:49.0	It's neutral and doesn't force someone to injure a trauma dump of a spiel on how the world is up in flames.
0:54.0	Yeah.
0:55.0	Yeah.
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0:58.0	If I ask you how you are doing, I am just saying hello.
1:01.0	That's right.
1:02.0	That's what's happening.
	...

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