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Money For the Rest of Us

How Much Should You Invest in Stocks? The Art of Position Sizing in a Volatile Market

Money For the Rest of Us

J. David Stein

Investing, Investing Podcast, Business, Economics, Economy

4.51.4K Ratings

🗓️ 11 October 2023

⏱️ 32 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Our allocation to risky assets should vary based on the expected return, volatility, risk aversion, and how much we can earn risk-free. That means we should be taking less risk right now. Listen to learn why.

Topics covered include:

  • Why there are so few billionaires
  • Why the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management imploded
  • Why how much to invest is more important than where to invest
  • How the Merton share formula can assist with determining what percent of our wealth to invest in risky assets
  • Why are expected outcomes so much greater than the median outcome and why it matters to our investing


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Show Notes

How to avoid a common investment mistake - Buttonwood - The Economist

The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions by Victor Haghani and James White

Money For the Rest of Us List of Most Influential Books

Charles Feeney, Who Made a Fortune and Then Gave It Away, Dies at 92 - New York Times

Elm Partners Coin Flip Exercise

Evaluating gambles using dynamics - O. Peters and M. Gell-Mann

Related Content

250: Investing Rule One - Avoid Ruin

Why You Should Rebalance Your Portfolio

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Money for the Rest of Us.

0:02.0

This is a personal financial show on money, how it works, how to invest it, and how to

0:07.5

live without worrying about it.

0:09.5

I'm your host, David Stein, today is episode 451.

0:13.4

It's titled, How Much Should You Invest in Stocks?

0:16.2

The Art of Position Sizing in a Volatile Market.

0:20.5

Back in the mid-1990s, one of the most successful hedge funds was long-term capital management.

0:25.6

The fund was founded in 1994 by two Nobel Prize laureates, Miron Shoals and Robert Merton,

0:32.4

along with a number of very smart traders from Solomon Brothers, including John Murray

0:36.8

Weather and Victor Harani.

0:39.1

The initial amount of capital raised was very large for a new hedge fund, a billion dollars.

0:44.8

The returns in the first three years were incredible.

0:47.9

The net of fee return from inception through 1997 was 31.2% annualized.

0:55.8

The fund never lost money two months in a row and grew to $7.5 billion, one of the largest

1:03.4

hedge funds in the world, even though it was closed to new investors since mid-1995.

1:09.9

Long-term capital management's investment approach exploited the price differences between

1:15.8

various financial instruments such as government bonds, corporate bonds, stocks, currencies.

1:21.5

The strategy is known as relative value arbitrage, and the idea is that while related securities,

1:29.6

their prices might diverge for a short time due to supply and demand imbalances that ultimately

1:36.0

the prices converge to their true relative value.

1:39.7

Each individual bet on its own if unlevered wasn't very risky, but the fund used a great

1:46.8

deal of leverage in order to magnify the returns of these small bets.

...

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