How Much Should You Invest in Stocks? The Art of Position Sizing in a Volatile Market
Money For the Rest of Us
J. David Stein
4.5 • 1.4K Ratings
🗓️ 11 October 2023
⏱️ 32 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Our allocation to risky assets should vary based on the expected return, volatility, risk aversion, and how much we can earn risk-free. That means we should be taking less risk right now. Listen to learn why.
Topics covered include:
- Why there are so few billionaires
- Why the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management imploded
- Why how much to invest is more important than where to invest
- How the Merton share formula can assist with determining what percent of our wealth to invest in risky assets
- Why are expected outcomes so much greater than the median outcome and why it matters to our investing
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Show Notes
How to avoid a common investment mistake - Buttonwood - The Economist
The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions by Victor Haghani and James White
Money For the Rest of Us List of Most Influential Books
Charles Feeney, Who Made a Fortune and Then Gave It Away, Dies at 92 - New York Times
Elm Partners Coin Flip Exercise
Evaluating gambles using dynamics - O. Peters and M. Gell-Mann
Related Content
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Money for the Rest of Us. |
| 0:02.0 | This is a personal financial show on money, how it works, how to invest it, and how to |
| 0:07.5 | live without worrying about it. |
| 0:09.5 | I'm your host, David Stein, today is episode 451. |
| 0:13.4 | It's titled, How Much Should You Invest in Stocks? |
| 0:16.2 | The Art of Position Sizing in a Volatile Market. |
| 0:20.5 | Back in the mid-1990s, one of the most successful hedge funds was long-term capital management. |
| 0:25.6 | The fund was founded in 1994 by two Nobel Prize laureates, Miron Shoals and Robert Merton, |
| 0:32.4 | along with a number of very smart traders from Solomon Brothers, including John Murray |
| 0:36.8 | Weather and Victor Harani. |
| 0:39.1 | The initial amount of capital raised was very large for a new hedge fund, a billion dollars. |
| 0:44.8 | The returns in the first three years were incredible. |
| 0:47.9 | The net of fee return from inception through 1997 was 31.2% annualized. |
| 0:55.8 | The fund never lost money two months in a row and grew to $7.5 billion, one of the largest |
| 1:03.4 | hedge funds in the world, even though it was closed to new investors since mid-1995. |
| 1:09.9 | Long-term capital management's investment approach exploited the price differences between |
| 1:15.8 | various financial instruments such as government bonds, corporate bonds, stocks, currencies. |
| 1:21.5 | The strategy is known as relative value arbitrage, and the idea is that while related securities, |
| 1:29.6 | their prices might diverge for a short time due to supply and demand imbalances that ultimately |
| 1:36.0 | the prices converge to their true relative value. |
| 1:39.7 | Each individual bet on its own if unlevered wasn't very risky, but the fund used a great |
| 1:46.8 | deal of leverage in order to magnify the returns of these small bets. |
... |
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