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Money For the Rest of Us

How Higher Interest Rates Alter Our Financial Blueprint

Money For the Rest of Us

J. David Stein

Investing, Investing Podcast, Business, Economics, Economy

4.5 • 1.4K Ratings

🗓️ 4 October 2023

⏱️ 32 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

We explore six impacts of higher interest rates on housing, capital projects, stock buybacks, excess returns for stocks, bonds, and other asset classes, and individual opportunity costs.

Topics covered include:

  • Where current interest rates stand
  • Central banker predictions for how long cash yields will stay this high
  • Why housing is the least affordable since the early 1980s
  • Why new apartment building construction has collapsed
  • What has been the excess return for stocks, bonds, and other asset classes when interest rates are higher and lower
  • Why there will be fewer stock buybacks and how that can impact earnings per share
  • Which alternative investments do better when short-term interest rates are higher
  • Why financial opportunity costs have increased and how that should impact our investment and other financial decisions.


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Show Notes

Summary of Economic Projections—The Federal Reserve

The Apartment Market Is Hitting a Construction Lull by Will Parker—The Wall Street Journal

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States—FRED Economic Data

Americans Are Still Spending Like There’s No Tomorrow by Rachel Wolfe—The Wall Street Journal

Honey, the Fed Shrunk the Equity Premium by Portfolio Solutions Group—AQR

Companies ease off on share buybacks as rising interest rates push up costs by Nicholas Megaw—The Financial Times

Related Episodes

384: Has a Commodities Bull Market Supercycle Started? If So, How Do You Invest in It?

435: Is It Better to Rent or Buy a House?

448: Where Are Interest Rates Headed Next? Insights from the Jackson Hole Symposium

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Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to Money for the Rest of Us. This is a personal financial show on Money.

0:05.0

How it works, how to invest it, and how to live without worrying about it.

0:10.0

I'm your host, David Stein. Today is episode 450. It's titled How Higher Interest Rates, Alter Our Financial Blueprint.

0:19.0

Yesterday, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield hit 4.7%. It's highest level since 2007.

0:27.0

The 30-year Treasury Bond yield was 4.8% the highest since 2010.

0:33.0

The real yield, as reflected in 10-year Treasury inflation protection securities, is 2.3%.

0:42.0

The difference between the 4.7% nominal yield for 10-year Treasuries and the 2.3% real yield

0:51.0

is the bond market's consensus for average annual inflation over the next decade.

0:58.0

The 4.7% nominal yield minus the 2.3% real yield equals expected inflation of 2.4%.

1:09.0

Higher Interest Rates, when driven by higher real yields, rather than by higher expected inflation,

1:16.0

that's good news for us as investors and savers.

1:21.0

It means we can earn positive, nearly risk-free returns greater than inflation.

1:29.0

For borrowers, however, higher interest rates are more of a burden.

1:33.0

In this episode, we're going to consider six impacts of higher interest rates.

1:39.0

We discussed what was driving higher interest rates two weeks ago in episode 448,

1:45.0

and in that episode, we looked at some reasons for higher real yields over the long term.

1:52.0

More innovative ideas, greater productivity, faster economic growth, with plenty of jobs,

1:59.0

that can lead to higher real rates of interest, along with modest levels of inflation

2:05.0

if there aren't capacity constraints. There's enough capacity to meet demand.

2:11.0

If there are fewer new ideas, population shrinkage, lower productivity, slower economic growth,

2:19.0

that would lead to lower real interest rates.

2:22.0

Wouldn't we want to have the former higher real rates because of a robust global economy

...

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