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Now to the top analysis of today's markets.

How hot is the U.S. labor market? Hi, everyone. Welcome to the real vision

extended daily briefing with me today is Julian Bridding co-founder of MI2 partners.

Hey, Julian, it's great to see you. Hello, Maggie. Thanks for having me back on the show.

It's been a while. Yeah, it has been a while since we had you on the daily briefing.

You pulled you away for Ralph for the day. I love it. Before we, you probably love it too.

Before we jump into the show, just a reminder to everyone. So it's an hour today.

The second half of the show is for real vision members. So if you want to stay with us,

scan the QR code and sign up. So Julian, if we take a look, U.S. markets just closed,

the action was pretty muted today. I mean, we're in a holiday week, you know, so that's not

surprising. We saw stock sell off a little bit, Treasury yields climb a little bit after the release

of the FOMC minutes. From the last meeting showed, you know, consistent, right,

the Fed members saying they expect more hikes. How are you thinking about the U.S. economy

and outlook for rates right now? Oh, so it's, I'm definitely more in the sort of storm

clouds of gathering magnet and certainly would look as though they would be gathering steadily in

the sort of first half of the year. So if you look at three things in particular,

the first one is clearly we have a big inventory cycle going on in manufacturing globally,

right? Manufacturing is definitively in a recession. The second one is we have a tightening credit.

That's being slowed to manifest itself. It's always is pretty slow to manifest itself,

but when you kind of look at the regional bank stuff, when you look at the anecdotes that we're

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