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Into the Impossible With Brian Keating

How Evidence Sometimes Loses Out to Emotion The AlphaMind Podcast with Brian Keating (#321)

Into the Impossible With Brian Keating

Brian Keating

Physics, Natural Sciences, Science

4.71.1K Ratings

🗓️ 7 June 2023

⏱️ 51 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In this interview on the ALPHA MIND podcast, hosts STEVEN GOLDSTEIN & MARK RANDALL interview Professor Keating about some of the connections which bind trading, investing, and science. Brian talks about how scientists, despite being held on some sort of an intellectual pedestal, are human, and are just as prone to the foibles and behavioral errors which are common to people in all fields, including trading. The theme, which resonates throughout this interview, alludes to the meta game of science and trading, something which was captured in a quote by Dr. Keating, and which featured prominently in Greg Zuckerman’s 2019 book about the trading legend Jim Simons, ‘The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution.’ The quote is: ‘Scientists are human, sometimes all too human. When desire and data are in collision, evidence sometimes loses out to emotion.’ Themes explored in this interview are; confirmation bias, ego, and our ability, or even inability, to separate our outcomes from our ego. https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-alphamind-podcast/id1467395734 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Confirmation bias I think is the most deadly dangerous of biases that that

0:09.1

scientists will often succumb to and I think you know taking it one level deeper in trading or whatever there's this huge motivation to exploit minimal types of advantages

0:19.2

I mean it's rare you're going to have some huge you know unless's insider trading, which you guys would never engage in.

0:24.3

But you know, or any of your listening.

0:26.6

But you know, you're trying to take a tiny little advantage.

0:29.0

Perhaps it's purely, you know, stochastic and you only get hints at it via very complex models but you're trying to you know take something very tiny and have a lever a leverage up that that particular piece of information or model.

0:43.4

In science, you know, we're not really, you know, competing for something like a fixed

0:47.8

gain. Of course, there is only one true reality of life, of nature, of the universe, and there are many people competing it

0:54.0

but it's not like there's millions of people in a marketplace that that kind of is efficient in any sense

0:59.0

instead where you know you can have a killer idea. Hello dear listeners, welcome to this Wednesday replay edition of

1:14.0

into the impossible featuring your host Brian Keating being interviewed on

1:18.6

the Alpha Mind podcast by Stephen Goldstein and Mark Randall.

1:23.0

Alpha Mind focuses on the world of finance and fields relating to trading, financial markets, and risk.

1:30.0

So what do traders have to learn from an experimental cosmologist?

1:35.0

Did you know that one of the greatest supporters of Professor Keating's work is

1:38.6

famed quantitative trader, mathematician, and billionaire Jim Simons?

1:44.4

In this interview, you'll learn how both scientists and traders are often driven by similar

1:50.4

passions.

1:52.0

By a quest to know, excel, and be recognized by peers.

1:57.4

And in the process, both traders and scientists can fall into the same cognitive bias traps that can distort reality and lead to disaster.

2:07.0

Beyond knowledge, what is the role of wisdom in a purpose-driven life?

2:13.4

If you're hungry for more sincere, in-depth open dialogue

...

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