Hi, Ira here, and you're listening to Science Friday. Scientists studying climate models say that this

year has a good chance of shaping up to be an El Nino year, and not just any El Nino, but a super

El Nino. So what is that? Why does it happen? Why should we care? Joining me is Dr. Dylan

Amaya. He's a research scientist at the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado.

Welcome to Science Friday. Hi, thanks for having me. Nice to have you. Okay, first refresh our memory

for exactly what is an El Nino.

At its most basic level, an El Nino is just simply a warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Typically, we define it as a period of time where that pocket of ocean gets more than about half a degree Celsius for five consecutive three-month averages.

And how often do they happen? Do they have a cycle? Yeah, typically, Alignios occur about

every three to five years, and they're often paired with Laninia events, which is sort of

the cold phase of what we call the El Niño's southern oscillation, which is sort of the total

package. So with climate change, does that make them more likely to happen?

That's a really, really interesting science question. It's something that we're actively

trying to understand better as climate models get better and better. Right now, we do

know that every El Nino is going to be warmer than the last, and that's primarily because

of something like global warming. Okay, so why are they calling this a super duper El Nino is going to be warmer than the last, and that's primarily because of something like global warming. Okay, so why are they calling this a super duper El Nino this year?

Yeah, primarily because we expect this event to be really big. By big, we mean something like

2 degrees Celsius warmer than normal. And that may not sound like a lot. you know, jumping into the ocean in that part of the

world. You may not be able to notice the difference on your skin, but the atmosphere and the

broader climate system definitely will notice a difference. So what are the models saying about

this year? What are the odds? Right now the models give it about a 25% chance of a very strong, strong,

or moderate strength El Nino developing the summer and into the fall and winter.

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