How economists are making sense of our geopolitical climate
Marketplace Morning Report
Marketplace
4.5 • 927 Ratings
🗓️ 20 April 2026
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Markets were hopeful on Friday after Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened to commercial vessels. Now, escalating tensions are bringing expectations back down. Marketplace’s Nova Safo spoke with Julia Coronado, founder and president of MacroPolicy Perspectives and a professor at the University of Texas at Austin, about how global economists at the National Association for Business Economics International Symposium in Rome, Italy, are grappling with the back and forth. Plus, later in the program: underemployment among recent college graduates and how we measure it.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | What geopolitics giveth on Friday, it taketh away on Monday. For Marketplace, I'm Novosafo. Good morning. |
| 0:09.0 | It's another Monday of volatility in markets, with hopes dashed at the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial waterway bordering Iran, will reopen soon. |
| 0:17.1 | Friday, there appeared to be signs of a possible breakthrough, but over the weekend, Iran fired at several vessels, and the U.S. attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship, according to President Trump. |
| 0:28.6 | Joining me now is Julia Coronado, founder and president of macro policy perspectives, and a professor at the University of Texas Austin. |
| 0:35.4 | This morning, she's at the National Association of Business |
| 0:38.0 | Economics International Symposium in Rome. Good morning, Julia. Good morning. |
| 0:44.0 | So you're at a symposium of a whole bunch of economists. What's the general consensus about, |
| 0:49.5 | well, everything right now? Well, this is a gathering of global economists from many different countries, |
| 0:56.1 | and the overarching theme here, I would say, is really uncertainty and how everybody's economy |
| 1:02.7 | is tied to how this situation in Iran unfolds. It's a sizable shock to the energy supply of the global economy. |
| 1:12.3 | Over the last eight weeks of this war, we've seen cycles of good news, bad news. How would you |
| 1:16.7 | gauge the market mood this morning? Considering the fallout doesn't seem to be as intense as |
| 1:22.2 | maybe in previous good news, bad news cycles. I mean, oil prices aren't as high today as they |
| 1:27.1 | were earlier in the conflict, for example. Well, there, oil prices aren't as high today as they were earlier in the |
| 1:27.8 | conflict, for example. Well, there's always going to be optimism as long as people are talking about |
| 1:32.7 | negotiations. Of course, one of the things we've been seeing is that these discussions can be, |
| 1:39.3 | or at least the headlines around the discussions can be very misleading. And that's what we saw |
| 1:45.1 | Friday. It's what we've seen repeatedly. It makes it very difficult to gauge risks. And yeah, |
| 1:52.7 | so I'm not really sure that we should take strong signals from the current moment of the market because |
| 1:59.1 | what actually happens is going to determine the |
| 2:02.2 | outcome. And we just don't know. The market doesn't know. You know, one of the signals we are |
| 2:08.0 | getting from the market is a strengthening dollar. What's that about? Well, that's a typical reaction, |
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