The grand experiment to boss around the U.S. private sector. I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. First,

predictions were right the Federal Reserve did lower its key interest rate by a quarter of one

percentage point yesterday. What lies ahead is less predictable, with different members of the Fed's

interest rate committee forecasting different outcomes. Marketplaces Nancy Marshall-Genzor explains.

Four times a year, the Fed issues what it calls a summary of economic projections, predictions

for economic growth, unemployment, inflation, and interest rates. The Fed's interest rate

projections are mapped out in a graph with each member of the FOMC, the Committee that Votes on interest rates. The Fed's interest rate projections are mapped out in a graph with each member of the

FOMC, the committee that votes on interest rates, represented by a dot. It's called the dot plot.

And Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledges it's not mapping out a clear path. It's not incredibly

obvious what to do. So we have to keep our eye on inflation. At the same time,

we cannot ignore and must keep our eye on maximum employment, which is those are our two

equal goals. And Powell stressed that the dot plot just represents FOMC members' opinions,

where they think interest rates should be set to achieve the Fed's goals.

Powell noted that 10 of the dots point to two or more interest rate cuts for the rest of the year,

and nine people wrote down fewer or no rate cuts. Paul said, in essence, take the dot plot

and the summary of economic projections or SEP with a grain of salt.

Rather than looking at this as certainty, I would encourage people, as always,

to look at the SEP as through the lens of probability.

And so there are different possible outcomes.

Powell says this mosaic of dots is natural, adding that it would be surprising

if you didn't have a pretty wide range of views in a highly unusual situation.

I'm Nancy Marshall Genser for Marketplace.

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