Housing Market Forecasts Flip as Zillow, NAR, Fannie Mae Make New Predictions

On The Market

BiggerPockets

Investing, Education, Business, News

4.8 • 859 Ratings

🗓️ 14 May 2026

⏱️ 30 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

New 2026 housing market forecasts have changed…dramatically. A major downgrade for home sales from NAR, a home price forecast revision from Zillow, and a new mortgage rate range from Fannie Mae. The industry is quickly growing much more anxious. At the start of the year, the consensus was for modest price growth, lower mortgage rates, and improved home sale numbers—that’s not where we’re at right now. Between inflation fears resurfacing, interest rates climbing again, and major geopolitical earthquakes, just months into the year, real estate forecasters are changing course. Today, we’re going through all the top forecasts for home prices, mortgage rates, and home sales from Fannie Mae, JP Morgan, NAR, and Zillow. But what about Dave’s 2026 forecast? How has it held up through wars, oil price spikes, and a changing Federal Reserve? Dave reviews his exact 2026 housing market forecast and whether he would change it now. In This Episode We Cover Updated home sales, home price, and mortgage rate predictions from major players in real estate Zillow’s latest home price downgrade and why we’re inching toward falling home values NAR slashes their home sales forecast significantly, but what do they say it’ll do to prices? Housing crash consensus? What major forecasters and economists are saying about the chances Reviewing Dave’s 2026 housing market forecast and whether he’s changing it in this new economic climate And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter Find Investor-Friendly Lenders Dave's BiggerPockets Profile On the Market 408 - Melody Wright's Honest Take On the “Worse Than 2008” Claim Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-425. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	At the start of 2026, there was a general consensus among experts and forecasters about what
0:07.1	would happen in the housing market this year, modest price growth, lower rates, and improving
0:13.3	sales. But that consensus has been blown up. With a continuing conflict in Iran, accelerating inflation, and a Fed on hold,
0:24.1	expectations have been reshuffled, and major institutions and analysts are changing their
0:30.4	forecasts for 2026. So today on On the Market, we'll talk through every major forecast,
0:37.0	how it's changed, what is
0:38.8	likely to happen for the rest of 2026, and what it all means for you.
0:48.3	Hey everyone, welcome to On the Market. I'm Dave Meyer, investor, analyst, and chief investment officer at Bigger Pockets.
0:56.5	Today on the show, we're going to be addressing the shifting expectations in the housing
1:01.9	market because at the beginning of the year, forecasters, for the most part, were aligned on
1:08.9	what was to be expected. Mortgage rates would come down a little bit,
1:13.0	sales volume would go up a little bit, and prices would grow, but modestly. But those expectations
1:20.6	are now changing as conditions on the ground have changed. With a new Fed chair joining in the next couple of days, the war in
1:29.7	Iran, resurging inflation and the corresponding increased likelihood that the Fed is going to pause
1:36.2	cuts, put that on top of AI and labor market fears, all of that is forcing forecasters to rethink their predictions. So today in the show,
1:46.4	we're going to see how those major predictions have changed and discuss what it means for the
1:51.5	housing market. I'll also let you know if my personal forecast has changed. As a reminder,
1:57.9	I said that rates would stay between 5.5 and 6.5% with an average of around
2:03.3	6.15. I said sales would pick up modestly to about 4.1 million for existing home sales. And I actually,
2:11.0	I guess, sort of bucked the trend of major forecasters and said that national home prices
2:17.1	would actually fall this year.
2:19.4	Most of them, as we'll go through in a minute, said that prices were going to grow.
	...

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