Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis.

Good afternoon. Today is Thursday, October 16th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn.

Our top story so far, will the ghost of Christmas future chase consumers into the arms of retail therapy this year?

While the economy isn't in a recession, a cooling jobs market, tariff fears, and a decline in

confidence are all echoes of leaner times.

But Wells Fargo still sees holiday spending up three and a half to four percent from last

year as shoppers seek comfort and normalcy amid uncertainty.

Economist Tim Quinlan says,

when people feel down, they're more likely to spend, especially during the holidays.

The forecast for November and December retail sales, ex-autos, gas, bars, and restaurants,

sits below the longer run average of 4.7% since 1992 and below the 4.3% seen in the 2010 to 2019 expansion.

Quinlan adds, we're seeing a slight slowing in sales growth amid tighter budgets,

higher prices, and early signs of restraint.

The impact of tariffs means gift cards could be the go-to gift this year,

and that could accelerate the broader shift towards online shopping.

Quinlan notes this could be another headwind to holiday sales, but also a boost in early

2026, as those cards are redeemed.

Sticking with shopping, BTIG kicked off coverage on several retail names, calling Nike

its favorite idea, predicting fundamentals will keep improving through next year.

Other expected winners, all rated by, include Walmart, Ralph Lauren, Tapestry, TjX, and Levi Strauss.

Among active stocks today, Taiwan's Semiconductor raised its 2025 revenue growth forecasts

to the mid-30% range after beating Q3 estimates.

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