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Interesting Times with Ross Douthat

Has Polling Broken Politics?

Interesting Times with Ross Douthat

New York Times Opinion

New York Times, Journalism, News, Society & Culture, Ross Douthat

4.07.2K Ratings

🗓️ 19 October 2022

⏱️ 30 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Election Day is just three weeks away — and that means it’s peak polling season. For political hobbyists, polling is the new sports betting: gamifying elections to predict outcomes that haven’t always proven accurate. If the 2016 election revealed anything, it’s that polls are sometimes off — very off. So as America faces another high-stakes election, how much faith should we put in them? On today’s episode, Jane Coaston brings together two experts to diagnose what we’re getting wrong in both how we conduct polls, and how we interpret the data they give us. Margie Omero is a longtime Democratic pollster and focus group moderator. Nate Silver, who prefers to call himself a “forecaster” rather than a pollster, is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. Together, the two tackle how polling both reflects and affects the national political mood, and whether our appetite for election predictions is doing democracy more harm than good. (A full transcript of the episode will be available midday on the Times website.)

Transcript

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0:00.0

It's the argument I'm Jane Kostin.

0:08.5

We're in the final countdown to the midterm elections.

0:11.7

And as usual, there are a lot of polls flying around about who's up, who's down, and what

0:17.4

that means for the House and the Senate, for democracy, for you.

0:22.3

But after the disaster of the 2016 poll predictions and 2020 feeling off base too, I've got a lot

0:28.7

of questions about what we're getting wrong in A, how we conduct polls and treat poll

0:33.7

results.

0:35.0

And B, whether our increased interest in polling is a good thing for our politics, or really,

0:40.8

for us.

0:42.8

Anyone who knows me knows I hate the horse race polls leading up to any election that

0:46.6

treat major elections like fun sporting events with zero consequences.

0:50.5

I used to report on sports.

0:52.9

I love sports.

0:53.9

But politics are not sports.

0:56.4

Sports are entertainment.

0:57.8

Sports are fun.

0:58.8

They don't determine if you can live in a certain neighborhood, get to work on time or

1:02.6

get work period, or afford to feed your family.

1:06.6

Politics do.

1:08.1

But clearly there's an appetite for predictive polling.

1:10.9

So who better to confront with my problems as polling than two people who deal with polls

1:15.2

every day.

...

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