Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 2: Regional Perspectives

Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.3 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 15 January 2026

⏱️ 23 minutes

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Summary

In the second episode of the Goldman Sachs Exchanges Outlook 2026 series, Goldman Sachs Research’s David Mericle, Andrew Tilton, and Jari Stehn discuss the trends shaping economies in the US, Asia, and Europe in 2026. This episode was recorded on January 7 and 8, 2026. Learn more about Goldman Sachs’ outlooks for the year ahead. The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. © 2026 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Is the U.S. economy poised for another strong year? What will China's trade surplus mean for the rest of the world?
0:11.0	And are there fresh reasons for optimism in Europe? I'm Alison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs exchanges.
0:18.0	This is part two of Outlook 2026, our special three-part series examining the
0:24.1	trends that will define the global economy in the coming year. Today, we're taking a tour of
0:28.9	economies around the world and what our regional experts see in store for them in 2026.
0:39.1	We start in United States with my colleague David Miracle, the chief U.S.
0:42.9	economist at Goldman Sachs.
0:44.8	David, very good to see you.
0:46.1	Thanks, Alison.
0:46.7	Great to be here.
0:47.6	So, David, in part one of this series, we got a sense of the tailwinds propelling the
0:52.4	U.S. economy as 2026 gets underway. So let's dig into some of the
0:56.7	details behind that. You expect pretty strong growth again in 2026 for the U.S. economy. Since trade policy
1:04.0	was such a big focus in 2025, I thought we would start there. What do you expect in terms of U.S.
1:09.7	tariff policy and what you think will be the implications
1:12.2	for growth this year? Sure. We've changed our tariff forecast a fair bit over the last few months.
1:17.3	There were a number of tariffs that the administration had talked about implementing,
1:21.2	some of which haven't happened. And we think that with the midterms coming up and the Democrats
1:25.2	getting some traction with the affordability theme, more likely,
1:28.9	actually, the administration probably won't raise tariff rates further. And if, as prediction markets think,
1:34.8	the Supreme Court rejects the AEPA tariffs, while they probably would be replaced, we think that
1:40.0	they would be replaced with something a little bit smaller on net because the replacement
	...

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