GM66: Trump Trade and the 3 Legged Stool ft. MacroAlf & Cem Karsan

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8 • 670 Ratings

🗓️ 24 July 2024

⏱️ 67 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Alfonso Peccatiello joins us for a compelling discussion on today’s challenging macroeconomic environment. Alongside my co-host Cem Karsan, we explore the impacts of massive debts, weak public sector balance sheets, and rising wealth inequality. We delve into how polarized electorates and global economic fragmentation are reshaping policies, discussing the economic implications of new tariffs, a weaker Dollar, and the prospects for Gold and Bitcoin. Alfonso shares his insights on rising interest rates and inflation, emphasizing the crucial role of central bank policies in shaping market dynamics. We also touch upon the potential impacts of geopolitical tensions and speculate on the effects of possible future scenarios, like a Trump presidency, on the global economy.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:45 - The impact of rising rates and inflation on the global economy

10:29 - Inflation expectations and the Trump trade

18:38 - What kind of inflation are we dealing with now?

27:10 - What caused a change in MacroAlf's view on inflation

34:16 - It's all about getting the distribution right

46:26 - Alf's perspective on the U.S. Election

51:20 - What will a win for Trump mean for the global economy?

55:38 - Could the U.S. lose their AAA rating?

01:02:31 - A "Golden" idea

Transcript

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0:00.0	I think Ray Dalio for the last 40 years has called for this bond vigilantes trade,
0:12.0	which is like, you know, you sell the dollar and you sell bonds at the same time and
0:16.0	all that has never happened. But now we are, I think, at a point where it's more reasonable to price
0:22.5	that tail a little bit fatter, and the market isn't doing that. The market isn't doing that at all.
0:29.7	Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. Imagine learning from their
0:34.6	experiences, their successes, and their failures. Imagine no more.
0:39.3	Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world,
0:45.3	so you can take your manager, due diligence, or investment career to the next level.
0:50.3	Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind.
0:54.2	All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance.
1:03.0	Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies, and you need to request and understand the specific risks from the
1:11.3	investment manager about their product before you make investment decisions.
1:15.4	Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Nealz Kostrup Larson.
1:25.5	Afonso, welcome back to the podcast.
1:29.7	Jim and I have been looking forward to it.
1:30.3	How are you doing?
1:33.2	Bonjour, not everyone, doing very well my side.
1:34.4	Very happy to see you guys.
1:38.3	Have you fully recovered from Italy's early exit from the Euros?
1:40.0	Next question, please.
1:42.9	There was painful. Well, we're all in the same boat there.
1:47.8	Anyways, at the moment we are navigating a dangerous macro environment
	...

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